In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy!

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:54 Implied Forward Rates

03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession

07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance

11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields

13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity

18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread

23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate

26:11 The Fed's Master Plan

29:43 Permissionless Ad

30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation?

35:19 Labor Market & Immigration

38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced?

40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt

42:03 Market Opportunities

44:33 Equities & Rates

47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets