This week, we discuss the U.S. fiscal pivot, soaring deficits, and what it means for bond markets, Bitcoin, and global capital flows. We also debate whether Japan is the canary in the coal mine for sovereign debt risks, if QE is still politically viable, the housing market crisis, and why Bitcoin and foreign equities may be the only rational long-term trades. Enjoy!
—
Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zNQbt0lyXLmZQYf-56mneLpPxFNJ5y7h/view?usp=sharing
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted.
Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more!
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:46) Big Beautiful Bill
(06:47) There’s One Trade
(09:39) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham)
(11:21) Government Spending Problem
(14:10) US Economic Data
(16:55) Housing Market Crisis
(22:12) Global Collateral & JGBs
(27:21) Food Prices & Labor
(30:46) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham)
(33:10) Bond Yields & Inflation
(38:32) Liquidity & Collateral Stress
(42:03) US Equities Still Safe?
(50:37) Final Thoughts
—
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.