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Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Jack to argue that European energy inflation will not, as many believe, cause an economic crisis. Instead, Dillian contends that, no matter the long-term consequences, governments will find solutions to the energy shortage such as price caps on commodity prices, which Dillian says will “crush” speculators. Dillian shares his framework for evaluating investor sentiment in order to discern the mood of the market and identify ideal turning points to take on contrarian positions.
Filmed on September 8, 2022.
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:33) Measuring Sentiment via Twitter
(04:08) Why Jared Thinks Europe Can Handle Its Energy Situation
(06:08) "Speculators Will Get Crushed"
(08:08) The Low Cost Basis Fallacy
(14:43) Natural Gas
(16:30) Price Caps In Energy May Be Coming
(21:07) Why Jared Was Bullish on Oil in early 2021
(25:30) The Bubble In Macro Doom
(27:12) Central Banks Can't Print Oil
(31:43) Outlook on Housing & Stocks
(36:22) Jared Dillian As Head Of The Federal Reserve
(40:06) "Why Are You Not More Bearish?"
(48:25) The Dollar
(56:22) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation
(58:40) Jared's Book & Concert
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.