Feelings and Forecasts: Overconfidence in Human Decision Making

Episode #399. Overconfidence is a behavioral bias that plagues many investors. What does overconfidence mean, and where does one draw the line between confidence and overly optimistic behavior? What are the most common forms of overconfidence? In this episode, Ryan O. Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management, provides the answers and offers practical tips on restraining this common bias.