Did August Jobs Ready Fed for Sept. Rate Hike?

* Earlier today we released the most important Non-Farm Payroll report ever, at least according to the media

* A WSJ article stated that this report could "seal the deal" on rate hikes

* Interest rates have been at zero for 7 years as the Fed contemplated lift-off

* It all boiled down to one jobs report?

* If the Fed were going to raise interest rates in 2 weeks, how can it count on its accuracy or the fact that numbers will change next month?

* Let's get into the numbers:

* The number we got was 173,000 - well below the consensus forecast

* One of the weaker components was private payrolls, which only grew by 140,000 vs and expected 211,000

* The headline number is the unemployment drop to 5.1% - the lowest in the Obama presidency

* Once again, the devil is in the details

* The unemployment rate is falling because of the mass exodus from the labor force

* Another 261,000 Americans left the labor force this month

* The participation rate held steady at 62.6%

* The lowest rate since 1977

* I think it's heading lower

* The total number of persons not in the labor force rose to a new record: 94,031,000

* Also this month another 158,000 Americans find themselves involuntarily employed part-time

* That's what's responsible for the "improvement" in the labor numbers

* Janet Yellen specifically wanted to an increase in labor force participation and more full-time jobs before contemplating raising rates

* Those numbers have gone in the wrong direction

* Why is nobody pointing this out?

* This is the 9th month in a row that year-over-year factory orders have declined

* The only other time that has happened is during recession

* Every time we've seen a sharp decline in the market accompanied by an increase in the volatility index, the Fed has responded with Quantitative Easing

* More and more people now do not believe the Fed will raise rates in September

* If the Fed raises interest rates and the market keeps falling and the economy rolls over, the Fed loses a lot of credibility

* This is affecting global markets

* The Dow is now in correction

* I pointed out in my last video blog that: a) the Fed has never raised interest rates from zero and b)normally the Fed raises interest rates into an accelerating economy

* This time the Fed is raising interest rates when the economy is weakening

* This time a rate hike will prick a much larger bubble

* Even if the Fed raised rates to a quarter of a percent, that is still cheap money

* The markets are forward-looking and they are not going to like what they see

* The dollar strengthened on anticipation that the Fed will raise rates

* America cannot afford higher interest rates on the debt we have now

* One of the things most people overlook is the huge stockpile of U.Ss treasuries that are held abroad

* Why do the emerging markets have so may dollars?

* In the aftermath of the 1997 Asian economic crisis, they bought dollars as a reserve to defend their currency if it started to fall

* That is happening

* So now, foreign governments are going to start drawing on their reserves, selling treasuries to shore up their currencies

* The vast majority of the accumulation happened after QE1, when we had a currency war

* The media has labeled this sell-off "Quantitative Tightening"

* China has already started to gradually sell treasuries

* The Fed has promised not to roll over maturing treasuries and to shrink the $4.5 trillion balance sheet to about a trillion

* That's $3.5 trillion of Quantitative Tightening

* Interest rates would have to rise dramatically to attract real buyers to U.S. treasuries

* No one can afford higher rates,

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