Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s (“SBF”) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:35) Scott Freeman's Background
(04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015
(09:06) Crypto in 2020
(12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022
(15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto
(19:23) Where Does Yield Come From?
(20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising?
(22:07) Algorand Ad
(23:52) Alameda & FTX
(29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried
(34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges
(39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es)
(40:13) General Market Outlook
(42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)
(49:07) Is There A Silver Lining?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.