* Today the FOMC minutes were released at 2:00 today and this is the last look inside the head of the FOMC members before September

* Now expectations are being pushed back to December

* Gold and silver prices were up today in spite of expected hawkish Fed comments

* We are at more than a one-month high in the gold price now above 1130 against a backdrop of extreme bearishness suggests we've seen the low in this cycle

* Silver was down yesterday and recovered dramatically today which suggests an upward trend

* There is no more upside in the "Fed is raising rates" trade

* The Fed may not raise rates at all, or say they might not raise rates again

* Is the Fed raising rates just so they can cut them? Raising rates will accelerate the recession

* Whether the Fed raises rates or does not raise them, this may be the end of the dollar rally and the end of the gold and silver decline

* The FOMC minutes do not indicate a plan for a rate hike in the future

* The Fed does not want to admit we're not progressing in the direction the Fed wants; we're moving the other way.

* Case in point: the Empire State Manufacturing Index came out on Monday

* Last month, in July the Index was 3.86% - a low number

* The consensus for August was a slight improvement to 4.75%

* We actually got -14.92%

* This is the lowest number since April of 2009 and the biggest miss since 2010

* The Fed is worried that there is not enough inflation

* There's not enough growth and the job market is not there yet

* If the Fed is further away from their goal than they have been in this ridiculous monetary experiment of zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing

* Walmart earnings are down - blaming weak earnings on the strong dollar

* How much weaker will their earnings be with a weak dollar?

* Americans are spending more money on food - inflation that is not being measured

* The Stock Market is still selling off, because a rate hike is not priced in, as it is in the currency markets

* This would be the first Fed rate hike in a decelerating economy

* This is not a normal period, so don't expect the stock market to behave normally

* Now, people are now starting to figure out that the Fed's process is not so smooth

* The stock market will trend down until the Fed comes clean and admits that it cannot raise rates

* This is just a lag between QE3 AND QE4

* Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong and when it comes to this Fed and this monetary policy, Murphy is going to look like an optimist


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