Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, joins Forward Guidance to explain his outlook of the current macro environment marked by slowing rates of growth and inflation coming down from high levels as central banks scramble to tighten monetary conditions. Timmer notes that while risk-free rates (as measured by Treasury yields) have risen sharply, risk premia as measured by credit spreads - and, in particular, the earnings yield of stocks - have barely budged.
Timmer shares his outlook on bonds, commodities, equities at this point in the economic cycle, and he explains his long-term bull case for Bitcoin, as well as why one of his models indicates gold is severely undervalued (not investment advice). Nothing Timmer or Farley say is investment advice.Follow Jurrien
Timmer on Twitter @TimmerFidelity
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks
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(00:00) Introduction
(06:08) Where Are We In The Cycle Now?
(12:40) Slaying The Inflation Dragon
(21:29) The Stock Market
(30:22) Bit.com Ad
(31:00) Commodities
(36:25) Gold
(44:24) Will The Fed Reverse on Quantitative Tightening (QT)?
(56:48) Japanification & Yield Curve Control
(1:06:18) Bitcoin