HOLIDAY CATCH-UP (1.3.25): The CFP, Bowl Season, and NFL Week 18 market mayhem

Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks back at the College Football Playoff’s road back to the best four teams. How there’s probably just six worthy teams, but why it’s fine that we took a circuitous route to get back to the semi-finals we had grown accustomed to. Meanwhile, Matt looks back at how Boise State probably deserved to cover, while for 50+ minutes Arizona State didn’t, and the nature of luck in how some of these football games shake down. 

With Bowl Season almost over, the betting market’s been wilder off the field than the action on it. If you waited until the last moment and faded the line predominant line move versus the open, you’d still be profitable, even in games where a line like Oklahoma -13.5 and Texas -25.5 became available live. 

Lastly, Matt speeds through Week 17, as an old reliable bad beat - +3.5 in overtime - found its way back into our lives double-time, but how some of last week’s results set up some decent bets (such as they are) for Week 18. 

Plus, a SNF SGP, the team total waste of time, and our “Hook ‘n’ Ladder” bet for the secret, podcast-only bets.

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB and more.