September Jobs Report Even Weaker Than It Appears – Ep. 201

* This morning the government released the most important, the most highly-anticipated economic release of the month

* At least that's what everybody who trades in just about any market believes

* And that is the Non-Farm Payroll Report; the official scorecard on job creation and unemployment

* This time it was for the month of September, the final month of Q3

* We're still waiting for the GDP estimate for Q3

* By the way the Atlanta Fed, which continues to do the interest rate limbo, lowered the bar again today on the Q3 GDP, which was 3.8% a month ago, when Janet Yellen talked about how the case for a rate hike had been strengthening

* As of today, the Atlanta Fed is down to 2.1%

* Politically, they are still trying to keep the estimate above 2%, although by the data, I expect it to be south of 2%

* The important news today was the jobs number;

* People were looking for a strong report, I think the consensus was around 170,000, but most people were talking 190 - 200,000, some people were looking for a number north of 200,000

* We got 156,000 jobs, which was below expectations, but a little better than the prior month

* Originally reported at 151,000 but was revised up to 167,000

* So now, based on the revised number, it's actually worse than the prior month

* Even though they revised the prior month up, they revised the month prior to that down, so the net effect of the revision was a decline

* The unemployment rate, expected to hold steady at 4.9 actually ticked back up to 5%

* Average hourly earnings, expected to rise by .3, following a small increase of .1 the prior month came in at .2

* Not quite the gain everybody thought

* This is not a good report, and anybody who thought the Fed was going to hike rates in November, they clearly don't think it anymore

* In fact, even WSJ reporter Jon Hilsenrath said that today's jobs report took a November interest rate hike off the table

* I would suggest that a November rate hike was never on the table

* To the extent it was there, it was only in the imaginations of people like Hilsenrath

* Hilsenrath says now, if the Fed is going to move, it won't be until December, but it's not a sure thing

* The fact is, the Fed is more likely not to raise rates in December

* Once again, you need to know the rest of the story, as Paul Harvey used to say, when it comes to the jobs numbers

* Because the headline doesn't really tell the story

* You always have to look beneath the surface, which nobody wants to do, except for myself, and a few guys over at Zero Hedge

* They always do a good job of pointing out what's really going on in the jobs market

* Number one: The big news was the net creation of part-time-jobs

* I've been saying this for a long time that the big story is that we are replacing full-time jobs with part-time jobs

* Employers need more part-time workers than full-time workers because each one works fewer hours

* We're always going to have net job creation when you are transforming the economy from full-time to part-time employment

* That was clearly the case this last month

* According to the Household Survey, we lost 5,000 full-time jobs in September and added 430,000 part-time jobs

* I would venture to guess that pretty much all of the net increase from August to September, 150,000 or so jobs, is in part-time work

* If you look at the large jump in employees holding down multiple jobs - the government reports that

* There was a big jump in September in the number of Americans who have more than one job

* So obviously what's happening is that people with one job are getting a second job and peop...

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