Bad Economic News… When It Rains, It Pours – Ep 74

* Dollar usually drops on bad news but rallies because traders automatically buy on the dip

* Bad news is dismissed because the first quarter "doesn't count"

* This puts greater pressure on the last 3 quarters to make up for the first quarter and still show growth

* Expectations of a bump similar to last year are based on non-repeatable conditions - Obamacare and inventory build

* Inventory to sales ratio is the highest it has been since 2009

* What is the basis for dismissal of the bad news in Q1?

* Data confirms that the consumer is already broke

* Consumers will be hit with rising oil prices

* Traders who are loading up on the dollar are ignoring all the evidence that they are wrong

* The wake-up call will be like the sub-prime mortgage crisis

* The same thing will happen in the Foreign Exchange Markets when they realize the story is not about a recovery but about another round of QE

* Changing trend coming in the dollar

* Changing trend in the oil market

* Changing trend in the gold market

* If we don't get a recovery in the summer how is the Fed going to raise rates in Q4?

* Election year 2016 will likely see no rate hikes

* Retail Sales missed Wall Street expectations with a bounce of only .9

* March Small Business Optimism fell to lowest level in 9 months

* Hiring Plans dropped to lowest level in 6 months

* Business Inventories for February rose to .3 based on weak wholesale sales

* Inventory to Sales Ratio holding at 1.36 (highest since July of 2009)

* My radio broadcasts from a year ago predicted that the data was not reflecting reality

* April Empire State Manufacturing Index missed expectations at -1.9, near a 2-year low



* Employment down

* Hours worked down

* New orders down to 3-year lows

* Prices paid went up





* March Industrial Production dropped .6, missing expectations - 4th consecutive month below estimate

* This news can't be blamed on April showers

* Those who have been betting on the recovery are about to realize they made the wrong bet


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