In this episode, author of the MacroTourist newsletter Kevin Muir joins the show to unpack why fiscal dominance is the defining force in today’s markets. He explains how MMT helped him rethink macro, why higher interest rates have recently been stimulative, and how the U.S. deficit is fueling both market resilience and long-term risk. We also dive into Trump's economic policies, potential capital controls, foreign capital repatriation, the implications for bonds and equities, and why Muir is positioning for FX volatility and a major private credit unwind. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:56) Two Macro Buckets
(07:50) Higher Rates Stimulative?
(14:03) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)
(15:52) Credit Ratings & Deficits
(18:46) Challenges of Cutting Deficits
(28:09) Capital Controls Next?
(33:02) Time to Own Volatility
(38:43) FX Volatility
(39:35) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)
(41:57) Global Inflection Point
(49:12) US Bond Market
(55:11) Firing Powell & the Dollar
(57:28) Equities & Risk Premium
(01:01:26) US Outlook: Bullish ROW?
(01:06:41) Corporate Credit
(01:10:22) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.