Walmart Is The Canary In The Retail Coal Mine – Ep.113

* We finally got some economic news today, all of it bad

* All of it "unexpected"...

* Hope springs eternal on Wall Street

* That's why the Federal Reserve can maintain its forecast of an interest rate hike before the end of the year

* Although now a second Fed official has come out saying he doesn't think a rate hike will be appropriate this year

* All this was forecasted by me; there was a method to their madness to maintain the theater that a rate hike is even possible

* When is the Fed going to admit that their earlier forecast of a big recovery and liftoff is wrong?

* CNBC finally admitted they do not want me on because I correctly predicted that the Fed would not raise rates

* The same is true for Bloomberg

* However,  the last time I was on Fox Business, that video on my YouTube Channel got over 80,000 views

* That is probably more people who viewed the live show!

* By the way, don't forget to like me on Facebook follow me on Twitter and and subscribe to my YouTube Channel

* It's not going to be too much longer before more and more people will agree the Fed is not going to raise rates

* If I am right and the Fed launches QE4, it will be hard for the conventional media to ignore me - I am not saying it will be impossible, though

* These podcasts are developing a greater and greater audience, and you can help spread the word by sharing them, to get the word out

* Let's get to the economic data, starting with the Weekly Mortgage Applications

* This number was significant in the precipitous 27.6% drop in the composite index with purchased mortgages dropping 34%

* Part of this was due to last week's big jump as mortgage applicants tried to get ahead of new government rules

* But the drop is much bigger than the pop - this is a bad sign

* The consensus forecast for the Producer Price Index was for month over month prices to drop .2% instead they dropped .5%

* Year over year, down 1.1%; last month it was down .8%

* This is bad news to the Fed, which is looking for higher inflation

* The real negative news was the September Retail Sales Number

* It was expected to be weak, up only .1 and that's what we got, but last month's .2 number was revised down to flat

* Now we're up .1 from zero, meaning August and September Retail Sales missed expectations

* This will pull numbers away from Q3 GDP

* I think we will get Q3 GDP below 1%

* It might be below zero, which will be the first half of a recession

* We also got Business inventories, which were unchanged, but the inventory ot sales ration popped up to 1.37 - that ties the high for the move

* This glut of product is bad news for the economy

* The last 2 times we had inventory to sales ration this high, we were already in recession - 2001 and 2008

* The worst news was Walmart's bombshell announcement that profits are suffering due to labor costs

* Their sales are suffering, too

* 75% of the losses are due to higher wages and the balance came from lower sales

* Walmart is the nation's biggest retailer and should benefit most from a stronger dollar and cheap gas

* Walmart's stock was down 10% on the day, one of the worst days in the history of Walmart

* YTD, it is down 33% from its highs - a super bear market for Walmart

* The Left proclaims that Walmart is getting rich on the backs of the workers - a collapse in Walmart stock price is not good for workers because profits are what creates the jobs



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