Ep.178 I Deciding to Doubt Yourself (In a Good Way): The Science of Overconfidence with Don Moore
Confidence is essential in business, but unchecked overconfidence? That’s where things fall apart.
Don Moore, a leading expert on decision science, breaks down why most people—especially successful ones—tend to be too sure of themselves in areas they know little about. We dig into why business owners struggle to evaluate risk, why past wins can make you blind to future mistakes, and how probabilistic thinking can keep you from making overconfident (and expensive) decisions.
KEY TOPICS
- How the sunk cost fallacy keeps business owners stuck in failing ventures.
- How market predictions based on ‘gut feeling’ often backfire.
- What AI reveals about human overconfidence.
- Why your biggest blind spots exist in areas where you think you’re most knowledgeable.
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CHAPTERS
00:00 – Intro: Defeating bad decision-making in life & business
02:00 – Why new parents are overconfident
05:30 – The Dunning-Kruger effect in parenting and beyond
07:40 – What is over-precision, and why does it matter?
12:20 – The dangers of overconfidence in business and investing
16:55 – Why successful people struggle with decision-making
19:20 – The power of having language for decision-making biases
21:45 – How thinking in probabilities leads to better choices
24:05 – Market predictions, uncertainty, and decision paralysis
26:20 – How hobbies and competition keep us humble
28:50 – The behaviors that make people more (or less) overconfident
31:05 – The surprising gift of criticism
33:25 – Parenting, teenage rebellion, and overconfidence
36:50 – Overconfidence in parenting decisions
39:10 – Avoiding regret and learning from imperfect decisions
41:20 – Why most people misinterpret their financial wins
43:45 – Is AI overconfident? The risk of machine-generated certainty
46:00 – The problem with certainty in AI, investing, and life
48:30 – Why demanding 100% certainty keeps you stuck
50:30 – What Sanger has learned from hosting Decidedly
55:10 – The importance of embracing uncertainty in business and life
57:35 – Don’s top decision-making tip for business owners
57:47 – Where to connect with Don Moore
58:16 – Key Takeaways
59:29 – Message from the Producer
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Thank you to Shelby Peterson of Transcend Media for editing and post-production of the Decidedly podcast.
SANGER’S BOOK:A Life Rich with Significance: Transforming Your Wealth to Meaningful Impact
SHAWN’S BOOK: Plateau Jumping: What to Change When Change Is What You Want
MAKING A FINANCIAL DECISION?
At Decidedly Wealth Management, we focus on decision-making as the foundational element of success, in our effort to empower families to purposefully apply their wealth to fulfill their values and build a thriving legacy.
LEARN MORE: www.decidedlywealth.com
CONNECT WITH DON MOORE
Don’s Faculty Website: https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/
Don’s Lab Website: https://learnmoore.org/
X: @donandrewmoore
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/
Don Moore holds the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. His research interests include overconfidence, including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth. He is only occasionally overconfident.
Expertise and Research Interests
- Ethical Choice
- Decision-Making
- Overconfidence
- Negotiation