Rate Hike Odds Surge As GDP Forecasts Collapse – Ep. 232

* According to Goldman Sachs, the odds of a Fed rate hike coming up at the March meeting, which is less than 2 weeks away is now 95%

* It was 90% before Yellen spoke, that was looking at the Fed Fund futures, in fact the probability of a rate hike had been rising all week based on speeches of a number of Fed officials

* Everyone indicating that a rate hike was coming soon

* Nobody actually said how soon

* But they kept talking about why raising interest rates would be appropriate

* Why they didn't want to wait too long

* But of course they always reiterate that they want to proceed slowly

* And of course, that they are data dependent

* Meaning that in order to deliver these rate hikes that they claim would be appropriate

* They will be slowly applied over some abstract period of time and

* The economy has to evolve according to their expectations

* Which probably is not going to happen

* But nonetheless, when Janet Yellen spoke, this was the last opportunity that a Fed official had to kind of dial back those expectations

* If Yellen didn't like the fact that the markets were 90% sure of a March rate hike

* She had the opportunity to dial that back in her rhetoric

* And she did not

* She allowed the markets to continue to price in a rate hike in the March meeting

* And that is why, now, the odds went from 90% to 95%, which is virtually a lock

* Which means that barring any huge drop in the stock market between now and the March meeting

* That hike's probably going to come

* Because I think that the reason the Fed feels confident to raise rates is that the Dow is at 21,000!

* Just like it felt confident to raise interest rates the first time in December of 2015 because the markets were giving a false signal that rate hikes were OK

* And, of course after the rates were hiked, the market thought about it again, and it dumped

* And then we had the worst January in the history of Janaries

* And the Fed waited until the following December to raise rates again


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