Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:34) Why There Was No Recession In 2023
(03:00) It Remains My Base Case That We Avoid A Recession
(05:01) Market Often Pays Too Much Attention To Individual Data Points
(10:39) Overview Of Sahm Rule And The Labor Market: "Once The Fed Starts To See A Modest Amount Of Weakening In The Labor Market, It's Probably Too Late"
(12:36) Sahm: I'm More Worried That The Fed Breaks Something In Financial Markets, I'm Less Worried About The Labor Market
(15:04) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Its Issues Likely To Be "A Slow Burn"
(16:57) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Was "Bread and Butter" For Fed
(20:54) The Sahm Rule Hasn't Been Triggered Yet - But How Close Are We?
(23:31) Notion Of 'Technical Recession' (2 Quarters of QoQ Real GDP Decline) Totally Failed
(25:59) VanEck Ad
(26:46) Labor Market
(29:45) JOLTS Can Be A "Problematic" Measure To Interpret
(36:12) Never Bet Against The American Consumer
(40:27) The Housing Market
(41:51) The Fed Should Never Be Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Again
(49:35) Neutral Policy Rate
(55:51) If/When The Fed Cuts Interest Rates, It Will Be Orderly (Unless There Is A Crisis)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.