* The official probability of a December rate hike continues to diminish over the last several days

* The markets had the rate hike at about a 70% probability; now we're down to about 60%

* Personally, I think the odds are closer to zero, and over time, as we get closer and closer to that December meeting, the odds will steadily move down

* Just like the Atlanta Fed keeps moving down its estimates for Q3 GDP; most recently down to 1.9%

* I expect the Atlanta Fed to move lower again this week on more weak economic data

* As the potential for a rate hike diminishes, gold's appeal improving, gold prices now back above $1260 today

* We've had a couple of back to back strong days in the gold sector

* Maybe the catalyst for the recent correction in the price of gold was the renewed expectation of a November and now December rate hike

* As those expectations are realistically dialed back, you'll see more money moving into the metals

* The dollar, though, continues to trade firm

* It's not moving higher, but it's not really surrendering much of its gains

* Maybe some of this has to do with weakness particularly in the pound

* Why is the pound so weak?

* The Bank of England was very forthright, they wasted no time in warning voters not to vote for Brexit as it would be a disaster for the British economy

* Well, sure enough, the people voted for Brexit, and so now, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy

* The central bankers in Britain had convinced themselves that the economy would require stimulus, and therefore announced an increase in their QE program


Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy