Sir David Spiegelhalter is one of the world’s leading statisticians, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University and author of The Art of Uncertainty. Having served on public inquiries into mass murder (Harold Shipman) and systemic healthcare failures, he has spent decades analysing how data is used - and misused - in society.In this episode, Sir David breaks down the mechanics of numerical manipulation in media, why "objective truth" is a flawed concept and how we can protect ourselves from confirmation bias. We discuss:•⁠ ⁠Why you should immediately distrust any statistic you hear in the news.•⁠ ⁠⁠How mathematical algorithms helped catch Britain’s most prolific serial killer. •⁠ ⁠⁠How simple linguistic tricks make identical statistics sound terrifying or reassuring. •⁠ ⁠⁠The breakdown of public trust during COVID-19 and the error of simplistic messaging. •⁠ ⁠⁠"Hedgehogs vs. Foxes": The mental framework that separates terrible forecasters from super-forecasters. •⁠ ⁠⁠The rise of AI "black boxes" in healthcare, weather, and business forecasting. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 - I Can Make Any Number Look Frightening00:03:08 - The System That Could Have Caught Shipman00:06:45 - Can You Mislead People With The Truth?00:09:54 - Your Own Bias Does The Work00:15:33 - Sitting In The Middle Of The COVID Argument00:17:52 - What The Public Got Wrong About Vaccines00:19:37 - Safe And Effective Was The Wrong Message00:20:56 - The Experiment On A Thousand People00:25:00 - What The Data Says About Lockdowns00:30:25 - The Government Threw Its Weight Around00:31:02 - I Cannot Forgive The Fear Mongering00:34:08 - Children Have Never Been Safer00:36:28 - Trustworthy, Not Trusted00:37:34 - How The Productivity Figures Went Wrong00:41:28 - Predicting The Crowd At Real Bedford00:48:20 - Will AI Replace Statisticians?00:50:03 - Musk's 20% Chance01:01:39 - The Model That Predicts When You Die01:05:05 - What AI Did To Mathematicians01:15:00 - Hedgehogs And Foxes- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -CONTACT PETE› Website – http://petermccormack.com› Feedback – https://www.petermccormack.com/contact› Email – me@petermccormack.com› Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/mccormack555/› X/Twitter – https://x.com/petermccormack/CONNECT WITH DAVID SPIEGELHALTER› Website – https://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/› The Art of Uncertainty – https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/447230/the-art-of-uncertainty-by-spiegelhalter-david/9780241658628› X/Twitter – https://x.com/d_spiegelSPONSORS› IREN – https://www.iren.com/› Quo – https://quo.com/pete- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -LISTEN / SUBSCRIBE› Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40ruY9K› Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3Wc94Vu› Fountain: https://bit.ly/FountainPM› YouTube: https://bit.ly/YouTube_PM› Rumble: https://bit.ly/RumblePMFILMED BY CURTIS TAYLOR› https://www.curttaylor.co.uk/› https://x.com/curttayloruk/EDITED BY CONOR MCCORMACK› https://x.com/ConorM04- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.