“The Sellers Are 100% Gone” — The Supply Squeeze Has Just Begun | Matt Hougan
Rob Wallace | Bitcoin NewsThe sellers are gone. Bitcoin shrugged at STRC dropping to 75 and the COLDCARD hack. It rallied when Saylor announced a Bitcoin sale.
Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, says those two moments told him everything he needed to know about where we are in the cycle.
In this conversation Matt breaks down why the Bitcoin bottom is probably in, why the institutional supply squeeze has only just begun, why financial advisors pulled Bitcoin off statements at the end of Q2 and quietly bought it back on July 1st, and why Strategy is entering a very different phase than the one that made it famous.
Here is what we cover:
• Why Bitcoin shrugging at bad news is the single best indicator that the bottom is in
• The Q2 to Q3 flow reversal that caught Matt completely off guard and what it reveals about financial advisor behavior
• Why only 5 to 10% of ETF holders sold during a 50% drawdown and what that says about the conviction of the people who actually own it
• Why institutional ownership of Bitcoin ETFs is on its way from 20% to 60% and what happens to the price when it gets there
• Why the four year cycle is not dead but institutions are living in a 10 year super cycle and how both can be true at the same time
• Why BIP110 has not penetrated institutional circles at all and why Matt thinks that is a good thing
• The Bitcoin Security Consortium from BlackRock Fidelity and Strategy and why Matt thinks the mercenary reason for it is actually fine
• Why quantum comes up in every institutional meeting as a blocker to allocation and what actually convinces them to move forward anyway
• Strategy 2.0 explained and why the easy button phase is over and the managerial skill phase has begun
• Why STRC is a retail led phenomenon and what would need to change for institutions to take it seriously
• The hardest question Matt would ask Saylor on the earnings call today
• Why the next cycle catalyst is stablecoins and tokenization and why Bitcoin gets a free lift from all of it
• Why Bitwise officially forecasts Bitcoin at 1.3 million by 2035 and why Matt thinks that is probably conservative
This is one of the most grounded and data-driven takes on where Bitcoin stands right now from someone who does 15,000 institutional meetings a year.
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Bitcoin News is not a financial adviser. All opinions expressed by us or our guests in these videos is for informational purposes only, and should not be treated as investment or financial advice of any kind. Any information provided during the video is general in nature and does not take into account the viewers specific circumstances.