In this episode, Vance Crowe and guest Jacob Shapiro into the evolving geopolitical landscape, focusing on the shifting dynamics between the United States and Europe. The discussion begins with the recent statements by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegsek, indicating a deprioritization of European security in favor of addressing issues like migration and the perceived threat from China. This shift is further highlighted by President Trump's unexpected communication with Vladimir Putin, bypassing European and Ukrainian leaders, signaling a potential change in U.S. foreign policy.

We also explore the controversial remarks by JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference, which sparked a strong reaction from the German defense minister, and the implications of these developments on the transatlantic partnership. The conversation touches on the historical context of U.S.-Europe relations and the potential consequences of a more self-reliant and militarized Europe.

Our guest, Jacob Shapiro, Director of Research at the Bespoke Group, shares insights into his role in managing generational wealth and the importance of geopolitical analysis in investment strategies. We discuss the challenges of making predictions in a rapidly changing world and the balance between emotional intuition and objective analysis.

The episode also covers the role of consulting groups like Eurasia Group and Stratford in shaping geopolitical understanding, and the importance of considering multiple disciplines when analyzing global events. We examine the impact of U.S. foreign aid, the recent changes in USAID, and the broader implications for international relations.

Finally, we touch on the energy policies under the Trump administration, the strategic importance of U.S.-Canada relations, and the potential for internal divisions within Canada. The conversation concludes with a look at the upcoming German elections and their significance for European politics, as well as the complex economic and political landscape in China.

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(00:00:00) US-Europe Relations Shift

(00:02:22) Economic and Geopolitical Forecasting

(00:06:01) Deep State and Geopolitical Consulting

(00:10:20) Geopolitical Analysis and Objectivity

(00:18:39) Emotional Influence in Analysis

(00:24:34) Russia-Ukraine Conflict Analysis

(00:28:23) US-Russia Relations Under Trump

(00:34:05) US-Europe Trade and Military Dynamics

(00:40:48) US Trade Policy and Tariffs

(00:44:44) Energy Policy and Economic Impact

(00:50:58) US Foreign Aid and USAID

(01:03:13) Canada-US Relations and Trade

(01:09:02) China's Global Role and US Strategy

https://serve.podhome.fm/episodepage/the-vance-crowe-podcast_638721156549613591/420