Marty's back on the shore house porch just as the Middle East flares up again. Marty and John dig into WTI and Brent back in the 80s, the SPR hitting 43 days, and why GCC countries are racing to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. They also get into the US as a helium winner, the Fed trying to have it both ways on forward guidance and inflation, and why Kimi K3 is exposing the strategic risk of nerfed frontier models. They also touch on Jevons Paradox in AI inference, whether sovereigns will end up backstopping training spend, and Bitcoin hovering around 64k with the strategic reserve bill finally hitting committee.
In this episode:
Shore house banter and Canadian wildfire smoke
Iran escalation and oil back in the 80s
SPR at 43 days lowest since 1983
GCC pipeline rush to bypass the Strait of Hormuz
Houthi blockade threats and Iraq oil deals
US helium exports surging to Asia
Fed governors declaring inflation peaked
The forward guidance contradiction
Kimi K3 surpassing US frontier models
Hugging Face and the nerfed frontier model problem
Jevons Paradox and AI inference demand
Sovereign backstops for training spend
Bitcoin around 64k and Galaxy bottom indicators
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill hits committee
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 - Shore house banter and smoke
00:01:27 - Iran back on the table
00:02:57 - SPR at 43 days
00:03:27 - GCC pipeline rush
00:05:02 - Yemen blockade threats
00:05:35 - Iraq PM visits Washington
00:07:35 - US helium winner
00:10:25 - Fed declares inflation peaked
00:14:27 - Kimi K3 and open weight models
00:19:07 - Hugging Face autonomous AI attack
00:22:53 - Jevons Paradox and inference
00:25:55 - Sovereign backstops for training
00:29:02 - Bitcoin around 64k
00:30:36 - Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill
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