Bits + Bips: Why Rate Cuts Are Less Likely This Year, but Crypto's Outlook Is Positive - Ep. 839
U.S. credit got downgraded. Fed policy expectations are flipping. And Coinbase hit the S&P 500 (while also being extorted).
But what does all of this mean for crypto?
On this week’s Bits + Bips, James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, Ram Ahluwalia, and Noelle Acheson break down:
- Why the Moody’s downgrade doesn’t mean much for markets
- Whether Fed rate cuts are now further off than expected
- Why Alex says Coinbase is a “horrible product” despite S&P inclusion
- How stablecoins tie into U.S. geopolitical strategy
- Whether Circle should sell to Coinbase
- And what the altcoin ETF delay really tells us
Plus: unemployment, yield curve control, the “Consensus vibes,” and Ram’s wild anecdote about workers gaming unemployment benefits.
- James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
- Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard
- Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida
- Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter
Macro
- Reuters: Moody's downgrade intensifies investor worry about US fiscal path
- USNews: Trump Tells Walmart to 'Eat the Tariffs' Instead of Raising Prices
Coinbase
- Unchained: How the Attack on Coinbase Shows the Dangers of Centralized Exchanges
- Fortune: Circle pursues IPO—but talks with Coinbase and Ripple could mean a sale, sources say
- CNBC: Coinbase joining S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial
Stablecoin bill
Timestamps:
👋 0:00 Intro
💳 2:18 A big reason why the U.S. credit downgrade matters for investors
📉 7:49 Contrarian take: why souring U.S. debt could also hurt crypto
🛡️ 15:30 Do tariffs work against the U.S. military and national security?
🔁 20:14 Why the crew flipped on Fed rate cut expectations
📊 28:35 Is the U.S. about to introduce yield curve control?
🧾 35:04 Are the Mag7 stocks the new safe havens in a recession?
📈 38:54 What if the “Goldilocks” scenario is priced in, and it's wrong?
💼 44:26 Why hedge funds are secretly in a vulnerable position
🫱 49:15 What the “vibes” at Consensus 2025 revealed
💵🇨🇳 50:44 A secret threat that the stablecoin bill poses to China?
📈 57:43 What Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion means and why Robinhood is its biggest threat
🌀 1:07:17 Should Coinbase acquire Circle? Here’s what the panel thinks
⏳ 1:13:38 Why altcoin ETF approvals are delayed and wen staking in ETFs?
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