This week we discuss whether the Fed made the right decision, the post-FOMC volatility spike, and the China risk to markets. We also delve into the labor market, the 1998 framework for today’s economy, 2025 expectations, and much more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(03:03) Why The Fed Did The Right Thing

(06:36) Is Inflation Rolling Over?

(12:01) Trump Policy Impact

(14:16) Explaining The Volatility Spike

(20:02) 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook

(22:02) Mapping The Market Rotation

(27:43) VIX & Market Positioning

(31:46) China Risk

(33:42) Ads

(35:36) Systematic Volatility

(37:50) China Structural Issues & Stimulus

(39:54) Bond Yields Vs Equities

(43:31) 2025 Rate Cutting Path

(46:54) Labor Market & Supply Shocks

(51:04) Economic Optimism & Lending

(52:35) Growth & Oil Outlook

(54:58) Bessent Economic Plan

(57:15) 1998 Framework

(59:55) Productive Capacity Boom

(01:03:04) End-Of-Year Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.