Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump’s political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:42) What’s Happening with Monetary Policy?
(07:46) What Fed Risk is the Market Pricing?
(10:55) Bond Market & Fiscal Tightening
(13:54) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse
(14:51) VanEck Ad
(15:34) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse
(19:46) QE vs Fiscal Deficits
(24:41) Impact of TGA Rebuild
(29:27) Signal for Average Macro Traders
(30:04) VanEck Ad
(35:05) Investing in High Inflation & Growth
(36:59) European Markets
(40:31) US Dollar & Emerging Markets
(43:54) Commodities Outlook
(47:03) Final Thoughts
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