The last big set-piece of the 2024 US election cycle, the Vice-Presidential debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance, took place on October 1 and seems likely to have no impact on the electoral outcome.
That is the conclusion of most pundits and analysts, and the snap reaction of focus groups who watched the debate. Vance is judged to have performed better than Walz, but neither man made any major mistakes or landed devastating blows.
JD Vance came across as by far the more polished of the two, and better at thinking on his feet.
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He clearly aimed to wrong-foot Walz from the start, by playing nice throughout the debate and displaying a human side, in order to undercut Walz's image as the more likeable of the two.
Vance warmly shook Walz's hand at the start, repeatedly agreed with points made by "Tim," and peppered his remarks with references to his working-class background and love for his wife and children.
He also repeatedly expressed empathy, for example, for the victims of Hurricane Helene ("I'm sure Tim agrees with me, my heart goes out to them"), or for families struggling with the cost of living.
Vance was also clearly on a mission to soften some of the Republican party's hardest edges on sensitive topics. When Walz said his teenage son had witnessed a school shooting, Vance was quick to express sympathy.
When Walz referred to a woman who had died because she had been unable to get an abortion in her home state of Georgia, Vance agreed it was wrong that anyone should lose their life this way.
He further finessed the issue of abortion by acknowledging that his party "needed to do a better job of earning back people's trust on this", for example by adopting a broader pro-family approach, including support for fertility treatment, child care, and affordable housing.
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By contrast, Walz appeared nervous and uneasy, especially at the start. He spoke too quickly and many of his remarks were too convoluted to be easily understandable. Sometimes he struggled to find the right word for what he wanted to say.
Walz made an excruciating gaffe when he said he was friends with many "school shooters" when he meant to say the "parents" of victims of school shootings. Most viewers will know what he was trying to say, but MAGA types will have a field day gleefully playing this clip repeatedly on social media.
Walz also repeatedly failed to push home an advantage when Vance was on the defensive - for example, pinning down Vance's role in spreading the false rumour that Haitian immigrants were eating people's pets in Springfield, Ohio, which had led to armed guards being required to escort Haitian kids going to school. He failed to call out Vance's blatant lie about not supporting a national ban on abortion.
Vance was also more deft than Walz in deflecting awkward questions. For example, when Vance was challenged about his comments, long before becoming Donald Trump's running mate, that he was unfit for office and a mini-Hitler, Vance glibly said "I was wrong" and instead blamed the media for allegedly peddling false narratives about Trump, and Congress for failing Trump by not doing its job properly.
When Walz was challenged on why he had erroneously claimed to have been in Hong Kong at the time of the Tiananmen Square repression of student protests in China, when he was there several months later, he waffled for several minutes before lamely saying that he was sometimes "a knucklehead", and that he had misspoken.
However, Walz grew in confidence as the evening went on, while Vance's veneer of charm and moderation began to wear thin, as he resorted to ever more outlandish claims about Trump's alleged achievements, and Kamala Harris's alleged failings.
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