This week we talk about natural gas, plumes, and satellites.

We also discuss firedamp, AI detection, and emission numbers.

Recommended Book: Excellent Advice for Living: Wisdom I Wish I'd Known Earlier by Kevin Kelly

Transcript

Methane, the name for a chemical made up of one part carbon, four parts hydrogen, is incredibly abundant on earth as it's formed by both geological and biological processes—the former when organic materials are heated up and have massive amounts of pressure applied to them, underground, and the latter through a process called methanogenesis, which basically means certain types of Archaea, a type of life, exhaling methane.

That sort of respiration mostly occurs in organic-breakdown situations, where these microscopic organisms live: so landfills and in the bottom of lakes, where dead stuff falls and is torn apart at a microscopic level by these tiny creatures, but also in the guts of cows and termites and similar beasties, which rely upon their symbiosis with these archaea to help them process the stuff they eat—which they otherwise wouldn't be able to break up and use on their own.

Methane was originally discovered, in the sense that it was noted and quantified, back in the late-18th century, when the Italian physicist and chemist, Alessandro Volta—who among other things also lent his name to an electrical measurement and who is credited with inventing the battery—who was studying marsh gas, marshes being a huge natural source of methane, as it's filled with the sorts of critters that break apart biological materials and release methane as a byproduct.

We've known about this gas for a while, then, and history is filled with examples of different cultures making use of it in relatively simple ways, as an energy source.

And on that note, methane is the primary constituent of what we today call natural gas, though the name methane was only coined by 1866 by a German chemist, August Wilhelm von Hoffman, who derived the term from methanol, which is the flammable, colorless liquid often called wood alcohol which is from whence the gas was first detected and isolated, and before that different cultures referred to it only adjacently, usually because it caused issues they couldn't quite quantify, like, for instance, causing deaths in coal mines—the deathly, gas-pocket-laden air, until methane became an official thing, sometimes referred to as firedamp, which was scary because it could suffocate everyone, or it could explode.

Today, methane, mostly as a constituent of natural gas, is harvested and shuttled all over the world to be burned as a fossil fuel; and similar to other fossil fuels, like oil and coal, that burning releases energy, producing heat, which is used to spin a turbine or heat water in a steam generator.

Natural gas is, in the modern world, generally considered to be superior to other fossil fuel options because it burns relatively cleanly, in terms of pollution, compared to other options, which is nice for folks in the areas where this burning is taking place, but it also releases relatively less CO2 into the atmosphere per unit of heat it produces when it's used for energy, so although it's still very much a fossil fuel and emits greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, it's the best of bad options in many ways, and can be stored and transported in forms that make it quite versatile and even more energy-dense—it can be refined and pressurized into a liquid, for instance, which makes transport substantially easier and each unit of natural gas more useful, but that also allows it to be used as rocket fuel and for similar high-intensity utilities, which is not something that can be said of otherwise comparable options.

What I'd like to talk about today is the role of methane in a world that's shifting toward renewable energy, and why this fossil fuel, which is generally superior to other fossil fuel options, is associated with some unique problems that we're scrambling to solve.

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Back in June of 2023, scientists announced that they had discovered evidence of a massive methane plume in Kazakhstan.

This plume—the consequence of a leak at a methane prospecting site in this methane-rich country—was later confirmed to be the result of an accident at one of a local energy company's wells at a gas field on June 9, and the company said they were doing what they could to address the issue, and that the purported gas plume was actually just hot clouds of vapor containing minimal amounts of methane; a misidentification, in other words.

The scientists who flagged the plume, though, said this wasn't the case: the satellites they used to identify it contain high spectral resolution imaging hardware, and they don't tend to mistake water vapor for methane—that may have been possible with previous technologies, but these new ones aren't prone to that type of false-positive.

The satellites noted at least nine individual instances of methane plumes erupting from this single site in the month leading up to July 23, alone, and those findings were then confirmed by scientists using similar technologies with the SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research—and that's alongside the original group's use of two different satellites, the EU's Sentinel-5P and the Italian Space Agency's Prism satellite, the former of which used a spectrometer that was designed specifically to detect methane in this way.

These researchers, using these findings, were able to estimate an emission-rate of somewhere between 35 and 107 metric tons of methane, per hour, into the atmosphere, from this one leak, alone, which has thus caused the same amount of short-term climate damage, in terms of heat amplifying greenhouse effects, as the annual emissions of somewhere between 814,000 and nearly 2.5 million US cars, making it the worst confirmed methane leak from a single source in all of 2023—so far, at least.

And "so far" is doing a lot of work, there, as these sorts of satellites have become increasingly effective tools in researchers' toolkits for identifying these types of leaks, and the software they use to crunch the raw data provided by these increasingly sophisticated detection tools has led to a small revolution in the ability to both notice and pinpoint the source of methane plumes, globally, even in areas where such plumes would have previously gone un-noted, and thus, unaddressed.

And this is important, if you're the sort of person who cares about the amplifying effects of human industry and other endeavors on climate change, because methane, in addition to its explosive volatility and capacity to degrade air quality and mess with ecosystems at ground-level, methane is thought to be responsible for about 30% of the total greenhouse effects we're seeing, today, because—despite only sticking around in the atmosphere for about 7 to 12 years, compared to potentially hundreds of years for CO2—methane is also about 80-times more potent than CO2, in this regard.

So in the short-term, which in this case means the around a decade a given methane particle persists in the atmosphere, it's way, way worse in terms of heat-trapping, compared to CO2.

And though that effect will subside faster than CO2, which can stick around for many generations, rather than a decade or so, we're still churning a lot of methane up there, so this isn't a one-off, temporary thing, it's persistent, the methane that goes away being replaced by more of the same, and those temporary impacts can have long-term repercussions, like melting ice caps, contributing to droughts and floods and extreme storms, and drying up areas that would periodically see irregular wildfires, causing much larger and more potent versions of the same, which in turn churns all the CO2 contained in those trees or peatlands or whatever else that are now burning, into the atmosphere.

So temporary boosts of this magnitude in greenhouse gas effects are not temporary—they can last far past the period in which the gases are actually up there, because of how substantially, and in practical terms, permanently, they change the circumstances on the earth, below.

All of which has led to waves of investment in being able to detect methane leaks, because while many energy companies are incentivized to cap leaky wells, in part because doing so potentially gives them a source of natural gas they can then turn around and sell as fuel, some such entities are more than happy to allow these leaks to just keep leaking, because the cost of identifying and handling leaks is higher than what they can expect to get from capturing and selling that gas, or in some cases because the entities in question are beyond strict regulations that would necessitate they care or act to begin with; there are no consequences for such atmospheric pollution in many parts of the world.

The same is generally true even in more dense and ostensibly regulatorily rich areas like Russia, which is expected to churn by far more CO2-equivalents worth of methane into the atmosphere from leaks and gas burning than any other country—though the US comes in second, followed by Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China at a distance sixth.

This is an issue in fairly remote and rural places like Kazakhstan, then, where there's a lot of energy and mining infrastructure, but not so many people, or regulatory bodies with teeth, but also in places like the US, where methane gas leaks are estimated to pump something like 6.5 million metric tons of this gas into the atmosphere every single year, which is roughly the equivalent of the yearly emissions of about 2.5 million US passenger vehicles.

There are means of addressing this issue, and they're generally referred to as "methane abatements," a term that encompasses everything from plugging or tapping those leaks to what cattle are fed—cows emitting a lot of methane because of how they're bred, kept, and fed, and how their microbiota processes that feed.

Fundamental to these abatement options, though, is figuring out where and how to apply them in the first place.

Governments around the world are thus beginning to aggregate the data they have, providing local governance and businesses with the resources they need to start addressing this issue, but the rollout has been slow, in part because the resolution of our view has been quite low, until just recently.

A trio of satellites, including the aforementioned Sentinel 5P, alongside the Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-2, the data they collectively generate paired with machine learning—a type of what we broadly might call artificial intelligence software—has allowed researchers to produce a wealth of automatically produced data on this subject, at a far more granular level than has been possible until now, which in turn has allowed governing bodies to parse that data and identify super-emitters, the worst of the worst in terms of these leaks, while also providing more specific, down to the individual well in an oil facility or in some cases the specific location on a pipeline, where these leaks are occurring; these satellites can also provide estimates as to how much methane is being leaked at a given location, which in turn can help nations, organizations, and corporations prioritize their abatement efforts, accordingly.

We're still in the frontier-stage of this sort of detection and amelioration, but there's more on the way, with satellites optimized for methane detection of this kind launching in the coming years—one of them, the $90 million MethaneSAT, is meant to help global regulators pinpoint hotspots and identify potential underreporting by various entities, which in turn should help put more pressure on those that are intentionally concealing their leaks: something that'll be especially important for holding companies like those in Russia, which are supported in this concealing by their government, to account for their chronically underreported emissions.

These satellites and similar detection tools, though, aren't of much use without efforts to act upon their findings at ground level, just as all the good intentions in the world wouldn't be enough to staunch the upward flow of this gas into the atmosphere, lacking the data required to tell us where to look and what needs to be done.

What we're really looking at, then, is a moment in time, beginning in 2023, but really kicking into high gear in 2024 through 2030, which is when many countries' first-step, big-deal climate commitments come due, a moment in which a confluence of detection and remediation efforts and techniques is finally emerging, and this confluence could allow us to significantly reduce this category of greenhouse gas emissions, which is great, because up to 75% of methane emissions are thought to be solvable in this way.

Such efforts, in turn, could reduce the rise in global temperatures from greenhouse gases by something like 25%, all unto itself; an incredible win, if we can keep the momentum going and incentives aligned as these new resources begin to spin-up and interoperate and give the folks trying to solve this particular problem the tools they need to do so. 

Show Notes

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane

* https://www.epa.gov/gmi/importance-methane

* https://archive.ph/ODvEK

* https://www.iea.org/energy-system/fossil-fuels/methane-abatement

* https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/methane-abatement

* https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Sentinel-5P/Tropomi

* https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66811312

* https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425723002675

* https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/9071/2023/

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_emissions

* https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-crucial-opportunity-climate-fight

* https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-much-does-natural-gas-contribute-climate-change-through-co2-emissions-when-fuel-burned

* https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/06/revealed-1000-super-emitting-methane-leaks-risk-triggering-climate-tipping-points

* https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/methane/

* https://www.state.gov/publication-of-u-s-government-funded-methane-abatement-handbook-for-policymakers/

* https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Trio_of_Sentinel_satellites_map_methane_super-emitters

* https://www.cpr.org/2023/08/17/methane-satellite-ball-aerospace-boulder/

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