Measuring What Matters: Why GDP Is Not Geopolitical Destiny
Despite economic headwinds, China will still overtake the US in terms of real GDP
How can power be measured between states?
Key challenges in applying the power as resources approach
China manipulates and likely exaggerates publicly released data on its economy and currency
Net vs. Gross Metrics
While Chinese real GDP is a source of power, it is counteracted by a number of significant economic costs.
Utilising a net approach would account for the significant economic costs that China faces which counteract its large GDP, for example; an increasingly ageing population (contributing to a significantly declining working population); male-dominated demographics; overexploitation damaging much of its arable land; industrialisation and pollution causing substantial water scarcity and negative health externalities; huge welfare and internal security burdens; and increasing infrastructure and
education costs.
Spending money will always increase GDP even if THE money is wasted, as seen with China's ineffective infrastructure investments.
Moreover, GDP counts production costs as output; therefore, spending money will always increase GDP even if money is wasted, as seen with China's ineffective infrastructure investments.
Power Conversion Problems
The USSR reached its military peak in the 1980s despite its economy being in a "death spiral", demonstrating that military power is often a lagging indicator.
The USSR reached its military peak in the 1980s despite its economy being in a "death spiral"
Conclusion
How can power be measured between states?
Key challenges in applying the power as resources approach
China manipulates and likely exaggerates publicly released data on its economy and currency
Net vs. Gross Metrics
While Chinese real GDP is a source of power, it is counteracted by a number of significant economic costs.
Utilising a net approach would account for the significant economic costs that China faces which counteract its large GDP, for example; an increasingly ageing population (contributing to a significantly declining working population); male-dominated demographics; overexploitation damaging much of its arable land; industrialisation and pollution causing substantial water scarcity and negative health externalities; huge welfare and internal security burdens; and increasing infrastructure and
education costs.
Spending money will always increase GDP even if THE money is wasted, as seen with China's ineffective infrastructure investments.
Moreover, GDP counts production costs as output; therefore, spending money will always increase GDP even if money is wasted, as seen with China's ineffective infrastructure investments.
Power Conversion Problems
The USSR reached its military peak in the 1980s despite its economy being in a "death spiral", demonstrating that military power is often a lagging indicator.
The USSR reached its military peak in the 1980s despite its economy being in a "death spiral"
Conclusion