Make it or break it time - earnings season is right ahead...
Fed heads - 8 speakers this week.
Tesla - blows away delivery estimates - what that means for profitability.
Change of direction for this currency? What the players expect.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- It is make or break - Earnings season is here
- Hot weather and hot inflation
- 8 Fed Speakers this week
- CPI data Wednesday - expected to be soft - Base effect
- Summer Doldrums but a Buying Frenzy!
Market Update
- Resilient - that's the word
- Eco divergence as employment stays strong
- Tech in the lead - But Banks ALL pass stress tests
- Europe favored over US on valuations (new analyst call)
- Big best on rising USD being reversed
AI
- Party’s over for ChatGPT Plus subscribers as OpenAI announced it has temporarily disabled the Browse with Bing beta tool from its service.
- Apparently, people used the feature to completely bypass paywalls and consume content for free.
- If a user specifically asks for a URL’s full text,” the AI will fulfill the request, including displaying content from paywalled articles
- How did it avoid the paywall?
---- Some paywalls are simply pasted over” articles, ChatGPT could simply read the code rendering the text and display the content without a problem.
META
- New Threads is threat to Twitter
---Twitter has degraded severly since Musk took over (IN AH opinion)
- META stock on fire, 100 million accounts created already
- Twitter is threatening to sue (of course)
West Wing Scandal?
- White powder was found in the White House last week
- Turned out to be Cocaine...
- - Who leaved a stash of coke anywhere - much less the White House?
Best Stock Market
- This year (to date) ???
- Zimbabwe
---- 5, 10, 20% daily gains
- Up 800% YTD
- Argentina up only 100% in 2023
Best Market 2023
FOLLOW UP
- Hyper-Inflation seems to boost stock markets
- Is it possible that this is the playbook that investors are using in US and other developed countries?
Change of Plans
- Apple is slowing its headset production and also slowing the rollout
--- By appointment only?
- Goldman is in talks to offload Apple credit and savings products to Amex
---- Goldman trying to rid itself of bad bet on personal/retail finance endeavor under CEO Solomon.
Jobs/Employment
- End of June: US weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in 20 months as economy shows stamina
- July saw a slight uptick in initial claims
- ADP report - HOT - 450k new jobs added to payrolls
- BLS official disappointed - 200k added but Unemp Rate ticked down to 3.6%
-- Jobs report still solid down to wage growth
---- Last 4 months added near 1M new jobs - not a jobs markets that is seen as being held back by rates
Fed Rate Plans
- Since we last spoke.... Odds are now 83% +/- of a rate hike in July
- 10 year treasury over 4%
- 2 year treasury over 5%
- Inversion of 2/10 worst since 1980s (and holding for LONG time)
-- Powell's recent commentary discussed potential for 2 more hikes and acknowledged that the inflation rate will not come to 2% target until at last 2025
------ Note - they have never nailed a prediction for as long as time itself
Meanwhile
- Rates do not seem to be bothering many...
--- Consumer Confidence hits 17-month high
--- Housing seems to be coming back from brief dip
- - Many of the homebuilders shares are at ATH
China Economy - Another story
- PPI inflation shrank to -5.4% below expectations
- Industrial profits are in bad shape
- Factory activity is in contraction for last few months
- Government pushing stimulus - targeting housing
TESLA
- Big print on deliveries
Fed heads - 8 speakers this week.
Tesla - blows away delivery estimates - what that means for profitability.
Change of direction for this currency? What the players expect.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- It is make or break - Earnings season is here
- Hot weather and hot inflation
- 8 Fed Speakers this week
- CPI data Wednesday - expected to be soft - Base effect
- Summer Doldrums but a Buying Frenzy!
Market Update
- Resilient - that's the word
- Eco divergence as employment stays strong
- Tech in the lead - But Banks ALL pass stress tests
- Europe favored over US on valuations (new analyst call)
- Big best on rising USD being reversed
AI
- Party’s over for ChatGPT Plus subscribers as OpenAI announced it has temporarily disabled the Browse with Bing beta tool from its service.
- Apparently, people used the feature to completely bypass paywalls and consume content for free.
- If a user specifically asks for a URL’s full text,” the AI will fulfill the request, including displaying content from paywalled articles
- How did it avoid the paywall?
---- Some paywalls are simply pasted over” articles, ChatGPT could simply read the code rendering the text and display the content without a problem.
META
- New Threads is threat to Twitter
---Twitter has degraded severly since Musk took over (IN AH opinion)
- META stock on fire, 100 million accounts created already
- Twitter is threatening to sue (of course)
West Wing Scandal?
- White powder was found in the White House last week
- Turned out to be Cocaine...
- - Who leaved a stash of coke anywhere - much less the White House?
Best Stock Market
- This year (to date) ???
- Zimbabwe
---- 5, 10, 20% daily gains
- Up 800% YTD
- Argentina up only 100% in 2023
Best Market 2023
FOLLOW UP
- Hyper-Inflation seems to boost stock markets
- Is it possible that this is the playbook that investors are using in US and other developed countries?
Change of Plans
- Apple is slowing its headset production and also slowing the rollout
--- By appointment only?
- Goldman is in talks to offload Apple credit and savings products to Amex
---- Goldman trying to rid itself of bad bet on personal/retail finance endeavor under CEO Solomon.
Jobs/Employment
- End of June: US weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in 20 months as economy shows stamina
- July saw a slight uptick in initial claims
- ADP report - HOT - 450k new jobs added to payrolls
- BLS official disappointed - 200k added but Unemp Rate ticked down to 3.6%
-- Jobs report still solid down to wage growth
---- Last 4 months added near 1M new jobs - not a jobs markets that is seen as being held back by rates
Fed Rate Plans
- Since we last spoke.... Odds are now 83% +/- of a rate hike in July
- 10 year treasury over 4%
- 2 year treasury over 5%
- Inversion of 2/10 worst since 1980s (and holding for LONG time)
-- Powell's recent commentary discussed potential for 2 more hikes and acknowledged that the inflation rate will not come to 2% target until at last 2025
------ Note - they have never nailed a prediction for as long as time itself
Meanwhile
- Rates do not seem to be bothering many...
--- Consumer Confidence hits 17-month high
--- Housing seems to be coming back from brief dip
- - Many of the homebuilders shares are at ATH
China Economy - Another story
- PPI inflation shrank to -5.4% below expectations
- Industrial profits are in bad shape
- Factory activity is in contraction for last few months
- Government pushing stimulus - targeting housing
TESLA
- Big print on deliveries
Activity