Keir Starmer's EU Reset Deal Is the First Crack in the Brexit Wall Holding Britain Back
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For almost a decade now the UK has been paralysed by Brexit. From the moment 52% of Brits voted to leave the EU back in 2016, British politics has been caught up in a stultifying consensus which insists that this one vote must be "honoured", no matter what the cost to the country at large.
The result was years of political stasis in Westminster, followed by the passing of a particularly damaging form of Brexit which, with the single stroke of Boris Johnson's pen, cut the UK's longstanding trading and political ties with its closest neighbours.
In the years that followed, all of the big promises made by pro-Brexit politicians turned out to have been false. Food prices went up, red tape increased and the economy flatlined. International trade, which we were told would be liberated by breaking our "chains" with the EU declined as companies relocated from the UK in order to avoid the new barriers put up with Europe. None of the new international trade deals struck in the years following Brexit came close to making up even a fraction of what the UK had lost from leaving the EU.
Meanwhile immigration, which the Leave campaign promised would be returned to the control of British politicians, soared to new record highs, as the last Conservative Government opened up new visa pathways to fill the post-Brexit gaps in the Labour market.
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As each big Brexit promise evaporated, so too did public support for it. With every year that followed the referendum, the numbers of Brits still believing Brexit had been the right decision declined. And in an era of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the case for Britain to club together again with its former European partners became easier and easier to sell.
Yet as voters shifted their positions, the political and media consensus in the UK remained remarkably rooted in the past. In the run up to the 2024 general election not a single major party backed the UK immediately rejoining the Single Market, or customs union, let alone the EU itself. Labour's leader Keir Starmer, who had previously campaigned for a second referendum, instead insisted he would "make Brexit work" with his spokesman insisting that "we're not going backwards when it comes to Brexit."
Yet fast forward to this morning and going back looks to be exactly where we are going.
During a remarkably warm press conference in which the President of the European Comission Ursula von der Leyen repeatedly referred to the Prime Minister as "my dear Keir", Starmer welcomed the "landmark" deal he had struck with the EU which he promised would forge a "new era" that would be a "win win" for both sides.
In what appears to have been a calculated inversion of the pro-Leave rhetoric about the referendum nine years ago, Starmer insisted that his new deal "delivers on what people voted for last year".
The substance of the agreement may not entirely match up to the rhetoric. Independent analysis suggest that the new agreements on agriculture, trade, fishing and energy will only restore a small fraction of the economic growth the UK is forecast to have lost due to Brexit. Much of the biggest potential gains, like rejoining the customs union and single market, also continue to be ruled out by the UK.
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To support its work, subscribe to the monthly Byline Times print edition, packed with exclusive investigations, news, and analysis.
Help us build the better media Britain deserves
For almost a decade now the UK has been paralysed by Brexit. From the moment 52% of Brits voted to leave the EU back in 2016, British politics has been caught up in a stultifying consensus which insists that this one vote must be "honoured", no matter what the cost to the country at large.
The result was years of political stasis in Westminster, followed by the passing of a particularly damaging form of Brexit which, with the single stroke of Boris Johnson's pen, cut the UK's longstanding trading and political ties with its closest neighbours.
In the years that followed, all of the big promises made by pro-Brexit politicians turned out to have been false. Food prices went up, red tape increased and the economy flatlined. International trade, which we were told would be liberated by breaking our "chains" with the EU declined as companies relocated from the UK in order to avoid the new barriers put up with Europe. None of the new international trade deals struck in the years following Brexit came close to making up even a fraction of what the UK had lost from leaving the EU.
Meanwhile immigration, which the Leave campaign promised would be returned to the control of British politicians, soared to new record highs, as the last Conservative Government opened up new visa pathways to fill the post-Brexit gaps in the Labour market.
'Elbows Up, Britain': Canada's Boycott of American Goods Spreads to the UK
How British voters could hold the cards when it comes to resisting President Trump's global trade war
Josiah Mortimer
As each big Brexit promise evaporated, so too did public support for it. With every year that followed the referendum, the numbers of Brits still believing Brexit had been the right decision declined. And in an era of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the case for Britain to club together again with its former European partners became easier and easier to sell.
Yet as voters shifted their positions, the political and media consensus in the UK remained remarkably rooted in the past. In the run up to the 2024 general election not a single major party backed the UK immediately rejoining the Single Market, or customs union, let alone the EU itself. Labour's leader Keir Starmer, who had previously campaigned for a second referendum, instead insisted he would "make Brexit work" with his spokesman insisting that "we're not going backwards when it comes to Brexit."
Yet fast forward to this morning and going back looks to be exactly where we are going.
During a remarkably warm press conference in which the President of the European Comission Ursula von der Leyen repeatedly referred to the Prime Minister as "my dear Keir", Starmer welcomed the "landmark" deal he had struck with the EU which he promised would forge a "new era" that would be a "win win" for both sides.
In what appears to have been a calculated inversion of the pro-Leave rhetoric about the referendum nine years ago, Starmer insisted that his new deal "delivers on what people voted for last year".
The substance of the agreement may not entirely match up to the rhetoric. Independent analysis suggest that the new agreements on agriculture, trade, fishing and energy will only restore a small fraction of the economic growth the UK is forecast to have lost due to Brexit. Much of the biggest potential gains, like rejoining the customs union and single market, also continue to be ruled out by the UK.
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