End of year gameplan - Is a Santa Rally in the cards - or have we seen the last of that for a while?
Oil on the move - new sanctions against Russia...
The yield curve inversion is very telling.
Employment Report - Stronger than anticipated. The economy isn't slowing enough.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- Monkeys can breath a sigh of relief
- Marital Affair - just don't vaca in Indonesia
- Santa Rally or Grinch-Off?
- Employment report - not slowing enough
- Apple - On and Off of Twitter
Market Update
- November - Good Start to EOY Seasonality
- Rates down (4.25% -> 3.50% on 10YR)
- Yield Curve Inversion
- Oil Prices DOWN - even on latest Europe news of Price caps
- Overextended excitement post Powell speech - starting to fade
Economy Picking Up Steam? (October Numbers)
- New orders for durable goods rose 1.1% m/m in October after increasing 0.2% in September.
- New orders for nondurable goods increased 1.0% m/m in October after increasing 0.3% in September.
- Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business spending -- were up 0.6% m/m in October after declining 0.7% in September.
- Good news = Bad news
Yield Curve
Current Curve
Inversion
- Inversion at this magnitude is tough on economy
- Banks slow lending
- Less money to be made by developers (traditional users of leverage)
- An inverted yield curve in U.S. Treasuries has predicted every recession since 1955, with only one false signal during that time.
China
- Re-Opening or False Hope?
- Stocks - especially Hong Kong (Hang Seng) up 4.5% overnight as hope for new rules mean China relaxing
- Looks like HOPE that China is going to all of a sudden reverse all of their recent policies.
Tesla - Slowing
- Bloomberg broke a story that the electric vehicle maker is cutting its December Model Y production by 20% at its Shanghai plant.
- Of course Telsa rebutting that pretty fast
- The report also comes on the heels of a 5-10% price cut in October for TSLA's Model 3 and Model Y in China, and this ominous tweet from Elon Musk on November 30: "Trend is concerning. Fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. They are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession."
- BUT - Some buyers in the U.S. are holding off on making a purchase until January 1, when the new $7,500 tax credit kicks in. Therefore, any weakness seen in December could be made up in January as buyers look to take advantage of the incentives.
MPOX - New name and Out of Sight
- Mpox is expected to no longer be considered a public health emergency in the United States from Feb. 1, 2023, the U.S. health department said on Friday.
- The months-long declaration was meant to tackle the largest-ever outbreak of cases in the country.
- The move signals that the crisis, which led to a spate of cases mostly among men who have sex with men, has come under control and would no longer require an emergency status meant to shore up funding and tools to fight the disease.
Interested in this...
- Hoka sneakers?
--- Like walking on pillows
- Owned by? Deckers (UGG Shoes)
- DECK symbol
- Stock has held up pretty well this year
Another Stock Idea
- IBKR - was promoted in Barron's over the weekend
- The electronic brokerage firm, which offers active investors sophisticated trading tools and low commissions, recently reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.08, handily beating the consensus estimate of 96 cents. Net revenue of $847 million set a quarterly record, too, rising 18% quarter over quarter, and 30% year over year.
- Stock in good position, slightly down on year
- Multiple currencies,
Oil on the move - new sanctions against Russia...
The yield curve inversion is very telling.
Employment Report - Stronger than anticipated. The economy isn't slowing enough.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- Monkeys can breath a sigh of relief
- Marital Affair - just don't vaca in Indonesia
- Santa Rally or Grinch-Off?
- Employment report - not slowing enough
- Apple - On and Off of Twitter
Market Update
- November - Good Start to EOY Seasonality
- Rates down (4.25% -> 3.50% on 10YR)
- Yield Curve Inversion
- Oil Prices DOWN - even on latest Europe news of Price caps
- Overextended excitement post Powell speech - starting to fade
Economy Picking Up Steam? (October Numbers)
- New orders for durable goods rose 1.1% m/m in October after increasing 0.2% in September.
- New orders for nondurable goods increased 1.0% m/m in October after increasing 0.3% in September.
- Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business spending -- were up 0.6% m/m in October after declining 0.7% in September.
- Good news = Bad news
Yield Curve
Current Curve
Inversion
- Inversion at this magnitude is tough on economy
- Banks slow lending
- Less money to be made by developers (traditional users of leverage)
- An inverted yield curve in U.S. Treasuries has predicted every recession since 1955, with only one false signal during that time.
China
- Re-Opening or False Hope?
- Stocks - especially Hong Kong (Hang Seng) up 4.5% overnight as hope for new rules mean China relaxing
- Looks like HOPE that China is going to all of a sudden reverse all of their recent policies.
Tesla - Slowing
- Bloomberg broke a story that the electric vehicle maker is cutting its December Model Y production by 20% at its Shanghai plant.
- Of course Telsa rebutting that pretty fast
- The report also comes on the heels of a 5-10% price cut in October for TSLA's Model 3 and Model Y in China, and this ominous tweet from Elon Musk on November 30: "Trend is concerning. Fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. They are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession."
- BUT - Some buyers in the U.S. are holding off on making a purchase until January 1, when the new $7,500 tax credit kicks in. Therefore, any weakness seen in December could be made up in January as buyers look to take advantage of the incentives.
MPOX - New name and Out of Sight
- Mpox is expected to no longer be considered a public health emergency in the United States from Feb. 1, 2023, the U.S. health department said on Friday.
- The months-long declaration was meant to tackle the largest-ever outbreak of cases in the country.
- The move signals that the crisis, which led to a spate of cases mostly among men who have sex with men, has come under control and would no longer require an emergency status meant to shore up funding and tools to fight the disease.
Interested in this...
- Hoka sneakers?
--- Like walking on pillows
- Owned by? Deckers (UGG Shoes)
- DECK symbol
- Stock has held up pretty well this year
Another Stock Idea
- IBKR - was promoted in Barron's over the weekend
- The electronic brokerage firm, which offers active investors sophisticated trading tools and low commissions, recently reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.08, handily beating the consensus estimate of 96 cents. Net revenue of $847 million set a quarterly record, too, rising 18% quarter over quarter, and 30% year over year.
- Stock in good position, slightly down on year
- Multiple currencies,
Activity