Economy on fire in the US - while China sinks to new lows.
Housing market sentiment slows - hit by high mortgage rates.
Big break for big insurers.
The Closest to The Pin Winner!
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- Musk/Zuck cage-fight news (AGAIN)
- FITCH - at it again
- M&A in Steel industry
- China eco spooks markets (Ghost Economics hits)
- Impact of Maui Fires - Focus on A Utility Company
Market Update
- Sentiment shifting - AI craze dulls some tech selling off
- Housing index drops - (builder sentiment) - 7% mortgage rates hit hard
- EV price wars - led by Elon (beat them and bury them)
- Disinflation is slowing ( Confusing?)
Inflation
- PPI comes out hot
- Concern rising that there is commodity inflation returning
- Talk of one more hike this year then cuts mid-2024 (Goldman Sachs Update)
- Meanwhile - rates movin' up
10's Moving
Yield Curve
- Getting Crazy!
2/10's
Earnings Season - Almost ending
- The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30).
- If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings.
- Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week
Fitch - Another Warning
- Discussed the rationale with Moody's last week
- A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase.
- Another one-notch downgrade of the industry's score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers
Yen - Intervention
- Yen hits 145 - level that has had BOJ intervention previously
- Weakening due to easy monetary policy while everywhere else is tightening
Yen
Japan
- 6% GDP (annualized) - expectations were for 3.1%
- How do you keep rates at historic lows?
China
- Just bad news after bad news
- So bad they announce a surprise rate cut last night
- Discontinued reporting on unemployment of young people - (was record level of 21%+ last month)
- Retail sales rose by 2.5% in July from a year ago, below expectations for a 4.5% increase,
- Industrial production rose by 3.7% in July from a year ago, below the 4.4% increase analysts had expected
- Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the first seven months of the year from a year ago, below the 3.8% forecast
- The urban unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June
More China
- One of China’s largest private wealth managers has triggered fresh anxiety about the health of the country’s shadow banking industry after missing payments on multiple high-yield investment products.
- Zhongzhi is among the biggest players in the country’s $2.9 trillion trust industry, which combines characteristics of commercial and investment banking, private equity and wealth management.
- Firms in the sector pool savings from wealthy households and corporate clients to offer loans and invest in real estate, stocks, bonds and commodities.
Russian Ruble Woes
- Ruble hits 17 month low - discussion that this is because Russia losing the war?
- Russia's central bank on Tuesday hiked interest rates by 350 basis points to 12% at an emergency meeting
Cage Fight - Done
- Zuck: "I think we can all agree Elon isn't serious and it's time to mo...
Housing market sentiment slows - hit by high mortgage rates.
Big break for big insurers.
The Closest to The Pin Winner!
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- Musk/Zuck cage-fight news (AGAIN)
- FITCH - at it again
- M&A in Steel industry
- China eco spooks markets (Ghost Economics hits)
- Impact of Maui Fires - Focus on A Utility Company
Market Update
- Sentiment shifting - AI craze dulls some tech selling off
- Housing index drops - (builder sentiment) - 7% mortgage rates hit hard
- EV price wars - led by Elon (beat them and bury them)
- Disinflation is slowing ( Confusing?)
Inflation
- PPI comes out hot
- Concern rising that there is commodity inflation returning
- Talk of one more hike this year then cuts mid-2024 (Goldman Sachs Update)
- Meanwhile - rates movin' up
10's Moving
Yield Curve
- Getting Crazy!
2/10's
Earnings Season - Almost ending
- The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30).
- If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings.
- Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week
Fitch - Another Warning
- Discussed the rationale with Moody's last week
- A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase.
- Another one-notch downgrade of the industry's score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers
Yen - Intervention
- Yen hits 145 - level that has had BOJ intervention previously
- Weakening due to easy monetary policy while everywhere else is tightening
Yen
Japan
- 6% GDP (annualized) - expectations were for 3.1%
- How do you keep rates at historic lows?
China
- Just bad news after bad news
- So bad they announce a surprise rate cut last night
- Discontinued reporting on unemployment of young people - (was record level of 21%+ last month)
- Retail sales rose by 2.5% in July from a year ago, below expectations for a 4.5% increase,
- Industrial production rose by 3.7% in July from a year ago, below the 4.4% increase analysts had expected
- Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the first seven months of the year from a year ago, below the 3.8% forecast
- The urban unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June
More China
- One of China’s largest private wealth managers has triggered fresh anxiety about the health of the country’s shadow banking industry after missing payments on multiple high-yield investment products.
- Zhongzhi is among the biggest players in the country’s $2.9 trillion trust industry, which combines characteristics of commercial and investment banking, private equity and wealth management.
- Firms in the sector pool savings from wealthy households and corporate clients to offer loans and invest in real estate, stocks, bonds and commodities.
Russian Ruble Woes
- Ruble hits 17 month low - discussion that this is because Russia losing the war?
- Russia's central bank on Tuesday hiked interest rates by 350 basis points to 12% at an emergency meeting
Cage Fight - Done
- Zuck: "I think we can all agree Elon isn't serious and it's time to mo...
Activity