Alfonso (“Alf”) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, “higher for longer,” the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds.
Filmed on March 2, 2023.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023
(08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer"
(15:06) The Housing Market
(28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf
(33:16) Permissionless plug
(34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession?
(38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks
(45:04) Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question)
(48:35) Inflation
(52:29) Research Plug
(53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?"
(56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing?
(59:56) The Macro Compass
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.