Heading toward the barn - traders looking for Santa to come though for December
November was a pretty spectacular month for stocks...
Oil - OPEC+ making some moves - crude prices diving.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- Announcing the Winner - CROC's and Entries for the CTP Cup 2023
- Thanksgiving is over - heading into the end of the year and investors appear excited
- More strikes on the horizon
- Black Friday numbers are in - surprise - no surprise|
- Temporary Cease Fire - Extended a few days
- A Limerick
Market Update
- Short week - great month.... Best month in 2023 for most indices
- AI got its grove back - Microsoft saved the day !
- - VIX hits low since the pandemic
- KRI indicator +4 and holding with several clusters
- Yields holding down - Housing numbers poor and economy slowly slowing
- OIL! OPEC+ delays meeting - oil plunges on Wednesday...
- Fed Parade of Talking heads is at it again....
Following:
- Slap in Face? OpenAI not anticipated to offer MSFT a board seat on its new board, according to The Information
- "It’s a sign that the board will prioritize safety practices ahead of investor returns."
Word Watch
- Seeing this word starting to seep into all sorts of areas
- "ELEVATED"
- Schwab ad: "An elevated experience tailor made for trader minds"
- Pinky up!
December - Traders and Investors heading for home....
- Santa Rally is a possibility, especially if we see a quick dump to get rid of some of this froth....
- So much bad news is baked in and plenty of momentum
- USD breaking below the 50-day - good for stocks and commods
VIX
- FRIDAY - The VIX index of implied volatility on the S&P500 plunged to its lowest close since just before the COVID-19 shock unfolded in 2020 - an extreme some fear will inspire demand for options hedging and reversion back toward historic mean. It ticked back up to regain a foothold above 13 today.
- This is interesting as other metrics are calling for extreme overheat
- KRI +4 and holding with clusters (+5 or +6 is very concerning)
- S&P 500, NASDAQ all high (HIGH) levels of RSI - Spearman +97 (HIGH)
----- McClellan +137 (complex above zero line)
Markets Love it!
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) in Q&A says if inflation continues to fall for several more months, the policy rate could be lowered; if there is a consistent decline in inflation, no reason for rates to remain really high
Black Friday Update
- Cut and paste every year
- US online revenue up 7.5% from last year: Adobe Analytics (NOTE: Nominal - not adjusted for inflation)
- Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US, Adobe Analytics reported, offering a positive sign for retailers facing lackluster sales forecasts for the holiday season.
- Demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment helped boost the day’s online sales by 7.5% compared with last year.
- Consumers extended their budgets by leaning on buy-now, pay-later options, which climbed by 72% from the week before Thanksgiving (AFRM stock?)
--- On the other hand: US Black Friday sales rise 2.5% (less than anticipated) according to Mastercard and many looking for bargains
- E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year as consumers shopped for deals online, while in-store sales increased by 1.1%, MasterCard Spendingpulse said.
Bank Closures (JCD)
- Big banks like PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase filed for closing several of their branches in multiple states last week amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns over the past years.
- Altogether, banks filed for shutting down 64 branches.
November was a pretty spectacular month for stocks...
Oil - OPEC+ making some moves - crude prices diving.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- Announcing the Winner - CROC's and Entries for the CTP Cup 2023
- Thanksgiving is over - heading into the end of the year and investors appear excited
- More strikes on the horizon
- Black Friday numbers are in - surprise - no surprise|
- Temporary Cease Fire - Extended a few days
- A Limerick
Market Update
- Short week - great month.... Best month in 2023 for most indices
- AI got its grove back - Microsoft saved the day !
- - VIX hits low since the pandemic
- KRI indicator +4 and holding with several clusters
- Yields holding down - Housing numbers poor and economy slowly slowing
- OIL! OPEC+ delays meeting - oil plunges on Wednesday...
- Fed Parade of Talking heads is at it again....
Following:
- Slap in Face? OpenAI not anticipated to offer MSFT a board seat on its new board, according to The Information
- "It’s a sign that the board will prioritize safety practices ahead of investor returns."
Word Watch
- Seeing this word starting to seep into all sorts of areas
- "ELEVATED"
- Schwab ad: "An elevated experience tailor made for trader minds"
- Pinky up!
December - Traders and Investors heading for home....
- Santa Rally is a possibility, especially if we see a quick dump to get rid of some of this froth....
- So much bad news is baked in and plenty of momentum
- USD breaking below the 50-day - good for stocks and commods
VIX
- FRIDAY - The VIX index of implied volatility on the S&P500 plunged to its lowest close since just before the COVID-19 shock unfolded in 2020 - an extreme some fear will inspire demand for options hedging and reversion back toward historic mean. It ticked back up to regain a foothold above 13 today.
- This is interesting as other metrics are calling for extreme overheat
- KRI +4 and holding with clusters (+5 or +6 is very concerning)
- S&P 500, NASDAQ all high (HIGH) levels of RSI - Spearman +97 (HIGH)
----- McClellan +137 (complex above zero line)
Markets Love it!
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) in Q&A says if inflation continues to fall for several more months, the policy rate could be lowered; if there is a consistent decline in inflation, no reason for rates to remain really high
Black Friday Update
- Cut and paste every year
- US online revenue up 7.5% from last year: Adobe Analytics (NOTE: Nominal - not adjusted for inflation)
- Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US, Adobe Analytics reported, offering a positive sign for retailers facing lackluster sales forecasts for the holiday season.
- Demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment helped boost the day’s online sales by 7.5% compared with last year.
- Consumers extended their budgets by leaning on buy-now, pay-later options, which climbed by 72% from the week before Thanksgiving (AFRM stock?)
--- On the other hand: US Black Friday sales rise 2.5% (less than anticipated) according to Mastercard and many looking for bargains
- E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year as consumers shopped for deals online, while in-store sales increased by 1.1%, MasterCard Spendingpulse said.
Bank Closures (JCD)
- Big banks like PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase filed for closing several of their branches in multiple states last week amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns over the past years.
- Altogether, banks filed for shutting down 64 branches.
Activity