Wales Offered Stark Choice Between 'Reform-Led Government or Plaid Cymru' - as Labour's 26-year Rule Starts to Crumble
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Next May's Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election is a three horse race - with Wales facing dramatically different options to determine its future.
In May, left-wing nationalist party Plaid Cymru hit 30% in a YouGov poll, followed not by Labour, but Reform UK. Labour's 26-year domination of Welsh politics appears to be crumbling before voters' eyes.
Reform UK support was at 25% - quite a feat for a party that does not even have a leader in Wales, and no clear frontrunner for First Minister should the far-right party succeed. It does not have a single representative in the Senedd yet. But things change fast these days.
Anti-establishment sentiment against both UK Labour under Starmer and Welsh Labour is on the rise. And the opposition comes from highly contrasting camps.
Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan, who took over from her scandal-hit predecessor Vaughan Gething in 2024, has tried to set what former leader Rhodri Morgan called 'clear red water' between Labour in Westminster and in Wales. Her version - the 'red Welsh way' does not appear to be cutting through.
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Why? In an interview with Byline Times, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth claims the First Minister and baroness only distances herself from PM Starmer when politically necessary, unlike the late Labour premier and left-winger Rhodri Morgan who "genuinely meant it".
Morgan has been clear she wants to abolish the two-child limit on benefits - and appeared to reject Keir Starmer's "island of strangers" speech on immigration in May, saying she opposed "divisive rhetoric".
But when Rhun ap Iorwerth pushed Morgan to make it clear if she was rejecting Keir Starmer's rhetoric directly, a Labour spokesperson jumped in to say she was criticising other people, not her PM.
How Wales Became the Target of a Right Wing Culture War
Rachel Morris on the politicians and media organisations now cynically trying to exploit Wales for their own political gain
Rachel Morris
It is one of many reasons, he argues, that Labour are today viewed as "the establishment" in Wales, stemming from both their decades-long domination of politics there, but now by unpopular decisions made by a Labour PM in Westminster too.
"We know what's happening globally, with the growth of the right in politics as a backlash against the establishment. Well, Labour is the establishment in Wales…
"The Labour vote in particular is collapsing and tending to come to us. The Conservative vote has collapsed and gone to Reform. Our appeal is: let's corral that progressive pro-Wales voice around Plaid Cymru. We are the only realistic, genuine pro-Wales alternative Government that we have on offer for next year."
"Her instinct was to back Keir Starmer. Her instinct was to not criticise the cut to the Winter Fuel Payment, was to not criticise the two-child benefit cap…She mocked us for calling for scrapping the two-child limit, and she in fact voted against a Plaid Cymru motion calling for scrapping of the two-child limit.
"Now that she has seen the perilous position that Labour in Wales is in…she knows that somehow she has to put some distance between herself and Keir Starmer."
In contrast to Labour, Plaid Cymru has been vocal in calling for wealth taxes, rather than funding the huge hike in UK defence spending through cuts to foreign aid and disability benefits.
There's a real chance that next year it might be necessary for Plaid Cymru and Labour to work together in the Assembly, to hold out a Reform Government in Wales.
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For digital and print editions, packed with exclusive investigations, analysis, features, and columns….
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Next May's Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election is a three horse race - with Wales facing dramatically different options to determine its future.
In May, left-wing nationalist party Plaid Cymru hit 30% in a YouGov poll, followed not by Labour, but Reform UK. Labour's 26-year domination of Welsh politics appears to be crumbling before voters' eyes.
Reform UK support was at 25% - quite a feat for a party that does not even have a leader in Wales, and no clear frontrunner for First Minister should the far-right party succeed. It does not have a single representative in the Senedd yet. But things change fast these days.
Anti-establishment sentiment against both UK Labour under Starmer and Welsh Labour is on the rise. And the opposition comes from highly contrasting camps.
Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan, who took over from her scandal-hit predecessor Vaughan Gething in 2024, has tried to set what former leader Rhodri Morgan called 'clear red water' between Labour in Westminster and in Wales. Her version - the 'red Welsh way' does not appear to be cutting through.
Don't miss a story
SIGN UP TO EMAIL UPDATES
Why? In an interview with Byline Times, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth claims the First Minister and baroness only distances herself from PM Starmer when politically necessary, unlike the late Labour premier and left-winger Rhodri Morgan who "genuinely meant it".
Morgan has been clear she wants to abolish the two-child limit on benefits - and appeared to reject Keir Starmer's "island of strangers" speech on immigration in May, saying she opposed "divisive rhetoric".
But when Rhun ap Iorwerth pushed Morgan to make it clear if she was rejecting Keir Starmer's rhetoric directly, a Labour spokesperson jumped in to say she was criticising other people, not her PM.
How Wales Became the Target of a Right Wing Culture War
Rachel Morris on the politicians and media organisations now cynically trying to exploit Wales for their own political gain
Rachel Morris
It is one of many reasons, he argues, that Labour are today viewed as "the establishment" in Wales, stemming from both their decades-long domination of politics there, but now by unpopular decisions made by a Labour PM in Westminster too.
"We know what's happening globally, with the growth of the right in politics as a backlash against the establishment. Well, Labour is the establishment in Wales…
"The Labour vote in particular is collapsing and tending to come to us. The Conservative vote has collapsed and gone to Reform. Our appeal is: let's corral that progressive pro-Wales voice around Plaid Cymru. We are the only realistic, genuine pro-Wales alternative Government that we have on offer for next year."
"Her instinct was to back Keir Starmer. Her instinct was to not criticise the cut to the Winter Fuel Payment, was to not criticise the two-child benefit cap…She mocked us for calling for scrapping the two-child limit, and she in fact voted against a Plaid Cymru motion calling for scrapping of the two-child limit.
"Now that she has seen the perilous position that Labour in Wales is in…she knows that somehow she has to put some distance between herself and Keir Starmer."
In contrast to Labour, Plaid Cymru has been vocal in calling for wealth taxes, rather than funding the huge hike in UK defence spending through cuts to foreign aid and disability benefits.
There's a real chance that next year it might be necessary for Plaid Cymru and Labour to work together in the Assembly, to hold out a Reform Government in Wales.
ENJOYING THIS ARTICLE? HELP US TO PRODUCE MORE
Receive the monthly Byline Times newspaper and help to support fearless, independent journalism that breaks stories, sha...
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