Dr. Green is co-director of forecastingprinciples.com, a site promoting evidenced-based forecasting, and is a pioneer of methods to predict the decisions people will make in conflict situations such as occur in wars and in business.
Green became interested in climate forecasting when he realized the dire predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others might result in policies that would cause great harm to people. He decided to use his knowledge of forecasting to investigate whether predictions of dangerous manmade global warming were based on scientific forecasting methods.
00:00 Introduction to Kesten Green and Climate Forecasting
01:12 Initial Climate Forecasting Efforts
03:24 Collaboration with Willie Soon
04:54 Scientific Method and Alternative Hypotheses
05:41 Critique of IPCC Climate Models
06:15 Summary of Findings: Net Zero Makes No Sense
13:21 IPCC's Attribution Studies and Solar Variables
15:14 Challenges in Detection and Attribution of Temperature Trends
18:57 Testing Predictive Validity of Climate Models
34:29 Urban Heat Island Effect and Rural Temperature Anomalies
43:43 Benchmarking and Simplicity in Forecasting
51:56 Analyzing Rural Temperature Forecasts
53:17 Comparing IPCC and Independent Models
54:23 Forecasting with Extended Data
59:03 Evaluating Model Reliability
59:56 Statistical Fit vs. Predictive Validity
01:01:17 Exploring Model Estimation Techniques
01:05:23 Anthropogenic vs. Natural Influences
01:28:04 Challenges in Scientific Publishing
01:33:31 Conclusions on Climate Models
01:36:21 Historical Environmental Alarms
https://heartland.org/about-us/who-we-are/kesten-green/
About the Green & Soon (2025) paper: https://x.com/cohler/status/1924777203298140608
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AI summaries of all of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries