Grinch Ending .... No Santa Rally
CTP Results are IN! Close race
Cocktails -> Cancerous now
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Grinch Ending .... No Santa Rally
- CTP Results are IN! Close race
- Cocktails -> Cancerous now
- New rules for medical bill deadbeats
- Markets
- Poor end of year - hard hit by Grinch - killed Santa Rally
- Gym parking Lots - Resolutions for January
- Yields starting to becom a problem
- CME Fed Funds Futures --> No CUT MAN!
Market Update
- December
Market Update
Sector Update
January Markets
- As expected, the start of the year is typically a time when people make resolutions they hope to keep.
- In the finance world, we often hear about returning to discipline, cutting losers, adding to winners, and adhering to all the fundamental rules.
- Additionally, at this time of year, investors may consider becoming more aggressive, less aggressive, more diversified, or investing in last year's winning stocks.
- These thoughts and actions contribute to market volatility, which usually fades away within a couple of months when resolutions are forgotten
---- Much like how the parking lots at local gyms are packed every January, but plenty of spots open up by March.
Big Issue
- The big issue we need to focus on now is the continuing increase in rates as the 10-year Treasury yield has now breached a key resistance level of 4.6%, which is significant.
- There are several reasons for this move, but the simple facts are that the economy is still growing and prices are on the rise.
ISM Report - Not Helping (From Briefing.com)
- The ISM Services PMI increased to 54.1% in December (Briefing.com consensus 53.0%) from 52.1% in November. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the December reading reflects services sector activity accelerating from November.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it was a double-whammy for rate cut expectations in that the expansion in services sector activity accelerated while the prices index picked up noticeably, printing its first reading above 60.0% since January 2024.
• The Business Activity/Production Index increased to 58.2% from 53.7%.
• The New Orders Index bumped up to 54.2% from 53.7%.
• The Employment Index dipped to 51.4% from 51.5%.
• The Prices Index jumped to 64.4% from 58.2%.
• The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 52.5% from 49.5%.
• The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 44.3% from 47.1%.
No Cuts for A While
- With prices on the rise and the economy in good shape...
CME Fed Funds
Nat Gas!
- Natural gas futures prices surged last Monday, hitting a new 52-week high following reports of a colder-than-usual temperature outlook for January.
- Natural gas February futures rose around 15% during the session after an updated outlook by The Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released Sunday showed that the temperature forecast for next month is expected to be colder than average in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes.
- POLAR VORTEX?
- Already prices are fading....
Booze Bummer
- The U.S. surgeon general issued a new advisory warning Friday about the link between alcohol consumption and increased cancer risk, and pushed for policy changes to help reduce the number of alcohol-related cancers.
- U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said there is a "well-established" link between drinking alcohol and at least seven types of cancer, including breast, colorectum, esophagus and liver. For cancers including breast, mouth and throat cancers, increased risk may start around one or fewer drinks per day, according to his office.
CTP Results are IN! Close race
Cocktails -> Cancerous now
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Grinch Ending .... No Santa Rally
- CTP Results are IN! Close race
- Cocktails -> Cancerous now
- New rules for medical bill deadbeats
- Markets
- Poor end of year - hard hit by Grinch - killed Santa Rally
- Gym parking Lots - Resolutions for January
- Yields starting to becom a problem
- CME Fed Funds Futures --> No CUT MAN!
Market Update
- December
Market Update
Sector Update
January Markets
- As expected, the start of the year is typically a time when people make resolutions they hope to keep.
- In the finance world, we often hear about returning to discipline, cutting losers, adding to winners, and adhering to all the fundamental rules.
- Additionally, at this time of year, investors may consider becoming more aggressive, less aggressive, more diversified, or investing in last year's winning stocks.
- These thoughts and actions contribute to market volatility, which usually fades away within a couple of months when resolutions are forgotten
---- Much like how the parking lots at local gyms are packed every January, but plenty of spots open up by March.
Big Issue
- The big issue we need to focus on now is the continuing increase in rates as the 10-year Treasury yield has now breached a key resistance level of 4.6%, which is significant.
- There are several reasons for this move, but the simple facts are that the economy is still growing and prices are on the rise.
ISM Report - Not Helping (From Briefing.com)
- The ISM Services PMI increased to 54.1% in December (Briefing.com consensus 53.0%) from 52.1% in November. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the December reading reflects services sector activity accelerating from November.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it was a double-whammy for rate cut expectations in that the expansion in services sector activity accelerated while the prices index picked up noticeably, printing its first reading above 60.0% since January 2024.
• The Business Activity/Production Index increased to 58.2% from 53.7%.
• The New Orders Index bumped up to 54.2% from 53.7%.
• The Employment Index dipped to 51.4% from 51.5%.
• The Prices Index jumped to 64.4% from 58.2%.
• The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 52.5% from 49.5%.
• The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 44.3% from 47.1%.
No Cuts for A While
- With prices on the rise and the economy in good shape...
CME Fed Funds
Nat Gas!
- Natural gas futures prices surged last Monday, hitting a new 52-week high following reports of a colder-than-usual temperature outlook for January.
- Natural gas February futures rose around 15% during the session after an updated outlook by The Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released Sunday showed that the temperature forecast for next month is expected to be colder than average in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes.
- POLAR VORTEX?
- Already prices are fading....
Booze Bummer
- The U.S. surgeon general issued a new advisory warning Friday about the link between alcohol consumption and increased cancer risk, and pushed for policy changes to help reduce the number of alcohol-related cancers.
- U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said there is a "well-established" link between drinking alcohol and at least seven types of cancer, including breast, colorectum, esophagus and liver. For cancers including breast, mouth and throat cancers, increased risk may start around one or fewer drinks per day, according to his office.
Activity