Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced to “pivot” and cut rates. Hirst also shares his view on China, silver, and the labor market.
Lykeion Research https://www.thelykeion.com/research/
For more information about Real Vision Creative Studios, email customvideos@realvision.com
This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance to move your cash into a Treasury Account today.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(04:31) Disconnect Between Central Banks And Markets
(11:29) The Labor Market Is Tight But Not Strong"
(14:36) Fighting Against The "Doomsday Scenario"
(20:57) Base Case For 2023
(24:09) Is Refinancing Risk Delayed?
(29:40) Soft Landing Won't Happen But Plane Will Be Circling The Airport For Long Time
(33:43) Public Ad
(35:49) Controlled Explosions In China"
(41:52) The Merging of Geopolitics and Macro
(46:48) The Debt Supercycle
(49:53) Actionable Trade Ideas: Copper, Silver, and Calls
(56:23) Bonds and Oil
(01:04:51) Private Equity
(01:09:26) Recession Type and Length
(01:15:59) The Power Of Changing Your Mind