A new CTP announced - the first one for 2023.
There is a new buzzword and it moves stocks pretty substantially.
Big week ahead, earnings and the FED - coming at us at full speed.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- Superbowl teams are set - Eagles and Kansas City
- Big week for Earnings (big boys) and Fed rate decision (Wednesday)
- People perplexed - why are multiples staying so strong with all the info at hand?
- Expectations for Friday's employment report?
Market Update
- January ends on a good note. NAZ up about 10%, DJIA +2%, Long Bond ETF +7%, Bitcoin up 39%, Gold up 5.6%
- On Above -> yields down , dollar down (exact opposite of most of 2022)
- Car Companies - charging up the EV race
- EuroZone surprise ECO
- Interesting study on stock performance after earnings
Fed decision?
-- Odds are leaning to a 0.25% increase
- Thoughts?
Earnings Stats
- So far this earnings season, companies in the S&P 500 that MISS estimates are outperforming the S&P by 1.4%
- On the flip side, those companies that have beat expectations have slightly underperformaed the S&P 500
- Per Goldman, stocks that have missed Q4 earnings estimates thus far are outperforming the S&P 500 by 140 bps the following session, performing better than stocks beating EPS, first time this has happened with data going back to 2006
- Theories?
More Earnings
- FVCBankcorp (FVCB) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.27 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.45 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
- This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -43.75%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.48, delivering a surprise of 2.13%.
- Stock smoked on the news....
GM Earnings
- General Motors (GM +8%) is trading higher after the automotive giant reported Q4 results this morning. GM reported big upside for both EPS and revenue. GM also guided FY23 EPS to $6.00-7.00, which was better than analyst estimates, and to FY23 adjusted EBIT of $10.5-12.5 bln.
- GM also announced it will make an equity investment of up to $650 mln in Lithium Americas (LAC). The two companies will jointly invest to develop the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, which is the largest known source of lithium in the US and the third largest in the world.
Cardboard
- Cardboard box demand drops to lowest level since 2008
-- Bad for Amazon?
- Meanwhile International Paper (IP) up 8%
SURPRISE!!
The euro zone grew 0.1% in the last quarter of 2022, according to preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday.
- Expectations were for a -0.1% .... so not that far off and potential that revisions could take it down
- The region has been under significant pressure in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as high food and energy costs compounded long-standing supply chain bottlenecks.
- Germany was the worst in the grouping - GDP down -0.2% in 4th quarter
AND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised upward its global growth projections for the year, but warned that higher interest rates and Russia's invasion of Ukraine would likely still weigh on activity.
- 2.9% is the updated outlook, a 0.2% increase. DOWN fro 3.4% expected back in 2022
- Much of the upgrade is probably due to CHINA reopening.
Follow Up - Robo Lawyer
- Last week DoNotPay CEO Joshua Browder announced that the company's AI chatbot would represent a defendant in a U.S. court, marking the first use of artificial intelligence for this purpose.
There is a new buzzword and it moves stocks pretty substantially.
Big week ahead, earnings and the FED - coming at us at full speed.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- Superbowl teams are set - Eagles and Kansas City
- Big week for Earnings (big boys) and Fed rate decision (Wednesday)
- People perplexed - why are multiples staying so strong with all the info at hand?
- Expectations for Friday's employment report?
Market Update
- January ends on a good note. NAZ up about 10%, DJIA +2%, Long Bond ETF +7%, Bitcoin up 39%, Gold up 5.6%
- On Above -> yields down , dollar down (exact opposite of most of 2022)
- Car Companies - charging up the EV race
- EuroZone surprise ECO
- Interesting study on stock performance after earnings
Fed decision?
-- Odds are leaning to a 0.25% increase
- Thoughts?
Earnings Stats
- So far this earnings season, companies in the S&P 500 that MISS estimates are outperforming the S&P by 1.4%
- On the flip side, those companies that have beat expectations have slightly underperformaed the S&P 500
- Per Goldman, stocks that have missed Q4 earnings estimates thus far are outperforming the S&P 500 by 140 bps the following session, performing better than stocks beating EPS, first time this has happened with data going back to 2006
- Theories?
More Earnings
- FVCBankcorp (FVCB) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.27 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.45 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
- This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -43.75%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.48, delivering a surprise of 2.13%.
- Stock smoked on the news....
GM Earnings
- General Motors (GM +8%) is trading higher after the automotive giant reported Q4 results this morning. GM reported big upside for both EPS and revenue. GM also guided FY23 EPS to $6.00-7.00, which was better than analyst estimates, and to FY23 adjusted EBIT of $10.5-12.5 bln.
- GM also announced it will make an equity investment of up to $650 mln in Lithium Americas (LAC). The two companies will jointly invest to develop the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, which is the largest known source of lithium in the US and the third largest in the world.
Cardboard
- Cardboard box demand drops to lowest level since 2008
-- Bad for Amazon?
- Meanwhile International Paper (IP) up 8%
SURPRISE!!
The euro zone grew 0.1% in the last quarter of 2022, according to preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday.
- Expectations were for a -0.1% .... so not that far off and potential that revisions could take it down
- The region has been under significant pressure in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as high food and energy costs compounded long-standing supply chain bottlenecks.
- Germany was the worst in the grouping - GDP down -0.2% in 4th quarter
AND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised upward its global growth projections for the year, but warned that higher interest rates and Russia's invasion of Ukraine would likely still weigh on activity.
- 2.9% is the updated outlook, a 0.2% increase. DOWN fro 3.4% expected back in 2022
- Much of the upgrade is probably due to CHINA reopening.
Follow Up - Robo Lawyer
- Last week DoNotPay CEO Joshua Browder announced that the company's AI chatbot would represent a defendant in a U.S. court, marking the first use of artificial intelligence for this purpose.
Activity