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 Warm-Up
- Chaos - What next?
- Rates - moving in the wrong direction again
- USD Weak - what are investors thinking?
- A moment for Pope Francis
- CEOs - Selling stock

Markets
- Markets have had it - Done with this nonsense
- Fed Put in question - Powell under Fire from White House - Markets FED UP!
- Earnings Season - VERY CLOUDY
- VIX - back above 30 again (~35)
- HyperScalers - not so Hyper...

Update One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play)
- We have a clear winner from all of the entries and will announce and play at end of the show - I think it is awesome!

ECB
The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate -- the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance -- is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

Powell Under Fire
- President Trump says "The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “too late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always too late and wrong.....Too Late should have lowered interest rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!"
- President Trump says he is "not happy" with Fed Chair Jerome Powell; says he thinks Mr. Powell would leave if he asks him to do so
- Is he going to ask - will he leave????????
- How will markets react?
--- STOP THE PRESSES - Already did a 180 on that..."No intention of firing Powell"

Flurry of Deal Comments Tuesday
- As expected, most contradict the other
- Confusion as to how long
- general happy thoughts - nothing concrete
- Markets reacted positively then came off highs

Pentagon in Chaos?
- White House looking for a new Secretary of Defense, according to NPR
- Will he now have a Podcast or go back to Fox and Friends?
- Of course the White House press secretary is denying

Skinny Minny
- Eli Lilly soaring after announcing positive late-stage trial results for its oral weight-loss and diabetes drug, orforglipron, paving the way for a possible launch by the end of 2025
- Novo Nordisk is looking for FDA approval of their pill-form Wegovy weight loss medication

Some Eco
- April Philadelphia Fed Index -26.4 vs. 10.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior 12.5
- March Building Permits 1.482 mln vs. 1.455 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 1.459 mln from 1.456 mln
- March Housing Starts 1.324 mln vs. 1.418 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 1.494 mln for 1.501 mln
- March Leading Indicators -0.7% vs. -0.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -0.2% from -0.3%

IMF - Downgrades US ECO
- The US growth forecast for this year has been given the biggest downgrade among advanced economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a result of uncertainty caused by trade tariffs.
- Growth is now expected to be 1.8% this year, down from the IMF's estimate of 2.7% for the US in January.
- The sharp increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a "significant slowdown" in global growth, the Fund predicts.

NVDA
- NVIDIA breaks below $100 as China-based rival Huawei reportedly preps updated AI chip for mass shipment
- Last week, NVDA gapped lower after writing down its inventory by around $5.5 bln, indicating challenges in obtaining licenses to export its re-tooled AI chips, the H20, to China.
- While not on the same level as NVDA's flagship B200, or Blackwell, platform, the 910C fills a void in the Chinese market.
- For perspective, NVDA's H20, which was a scaled-down version of the H100, was still maintaining sequential growth over the past few quarters, shows the healthy demand for the watered-down chip. With Huawei's 910C touting better performance than the H20, it may quickly become the top choice among Chinese businesses.

Tesla
- Analysts are getting tired (FED UP) of the lack of focus by Elon
- Several downgrades due to concerns about DOGE politics hitting the brand
- Even Fanboys are giving up as they are saying that the company is no longer even pursuing the original goals - EVs
- PLUS - Now the company is delaying the lower cost Model Y that is was promising

TESLA EARNINGS
- Miserable, but not a surprise
- Tesla prelim Q1 $0.27 vs $0.41 FactSet Consensus; revs $19.34 bln vs $21.34 bln
- Tesla misses by $0.14, misses on revs, total automotive revenue down 20%; Reiterates that Cybercab is scheduled for volume production starting in 2026
- Stock up slightly after hours - How much worse can it get?????

Sector Update for April

Sectors

-- Meanwhile
- EFA (Europe and Far East) up 6% YTD
- EEM (Emerging Mks Stock) - FLAT
- China up 4.8% YTD
- Gold up 27% YTD
- USD DOWN 9.5% - Down 5.5% April

-The U.S. dollar continued its slide, falling to its lowest level since 2022, as global investors retreat from U.S. assets in the face of tension between President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve.

Travel Stocks
- Was HOT, now NOT

Travel Stocks

Boeing Update
- Chinese airlines have been ordered not to take any further deliveries of Boeing aircraft in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Bloomberg News reports.
--- UPDATE - China sent back a 737MAX - No Thanks!

Tit for Tat
- China on Monday warned it will retaliate against countries that cooperate with the U.S. in ways that compromise Beijing's interests, as the trade war between the world's two largest economies threatens to embroil other nations.
- China's warning comes as U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is reportedly planning to use tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. partners to limit their dealings with China. Trump this month paused major tariff increases on other countries for 90 days, while hiking duties further on goods from China to 145%.
- "China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests. If this happens, China will not accept it and will resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures,"

A Moment for Pope Francis
- Died on Easter Monday
- Conclave next - Smoke

What happens when a Pope dies
- The death of a pope is officially confirmed by a cardinal known as the camerlengo (chamberlain), currently Irish-American Cardinal Kevin Farrell.
- Until sometime in the 20th century, this was ritually done by tapping a silver hammer on the pope's forehead three times. Nowadays it is a simple matter involving a doctor and a death certificate.
- Traditionally, a mourning period of 15 days is observed before a conclave to elect a new pope can begin, although it can begin sooner if the cardinals choose to.
- Voting - Locked in until new Pope is chosen -
--After each round of voting, the ballots are burned. White smoke indicates a new pope has been elected, while black smoke means another round of voting is needed
--- Only cardinals under the age of 80 — currently a group of about 135 — are eligible to vote.
- Factoid: Youngest Pope was Pope Benedict IX - at the age of 20
---- ALSO, only Pope to be Pope twice - AND, and the only person ever accused of selling the papacy

Uber in HOT Water
- The Federal Trade Commission filed a lawsuit today against Uber, alleging the rideshare and delivery company charged consumers for its Uber One subscription service without their consent, failed to deliver promised savings, and made it difficult for users to cancel the service despite its "cancel anytime" promises.
- The FTC alleges that the company's deceptive billing and cancellation practices violate the FTC Act and the Restore Online Shoppers' Confidence Act (ROSCA), which requires online retailers to clearly disclose the terms of the service they are selling, obtain consumers' consent before charging them for a service, and provide a simple way to cancel a recurring subscription.

Hyperscalers (Wells Fargo Report)
- Amazon: AWS pauses some colocation leasing talks, signaling near-term hyperscale slowdown
- Microsoft also reportedly tapping brakes
- Watch uopcoing earnings for additional insights
- April 30 - MSFT    May 1 - AMZN

Good timing? Or Overblown?
---- Nice hatchet job by the press on programs that were generally already in place
- Meta Platforms Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Mark Zuckerberg and JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon were among eight other top executives who sold their shares before US President Donald Trump announced the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2, 2025
---This stake sale was carried out under a 10b5-1 plan which was implemented by Zuckerberg himself in August 2024
- Nikesh Arora is the CEO of Palo Alto Networks Inc., and has sold a total of 2,365,196 or more than 2.36 million shares, which are worth $432,371,610
--- Another stock sale program that was already in existence
- Jamie Dimon was another name that was mentioned - but he also has a program in place...

Trading Curbs
-Taiwan's top financial regulator said on Saturday it would extend temporary curbs on the short-selling of shares to help ensure stock market stability, and did not give an end date for when the restrictions might be lifted.
- The curbs were first imposed on April 6 after the United States imposed sweeping import tariffs, prompting global market turmoil. Initially imposed for one week, they were then extended for a further week.

OH Canada
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's campaign platform plans released on Saturday include tax cuts and new spending on infrastructure and defense, as he pledges a new economic order that is less reliant on the United States.

And Finally
- Japan's inflation grew 3.6% year on year in March, marking three straight years that the headline inflation figure is above the Bank of Japan's 2% target.

 

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The Tariff Blues
- Craig Weinberg
VPD Studio | WhyMilbank
Video | Photography | Design | A/V | Podcast
vpdstudio.com | whymilbank.com | theinterviewpodcast.org

Tariff Blues

“The Tariff Blues”
(A little tongue-in-cheek, a little serious)

(Verse 1)
Well, I woke up this mornin’, checked the price of steel,
Looked at my bottom line, don’t know how to feel.
Tariffs keep risin’, costs outta control,
Tryna sell my goods, but it's takin’ a toll.

(Chorus)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re givin’ me the blues,
Trade war’s burnin’, got too much to lose.
They tax me here, they tax me there,
Tryna make a dime, but it just ain’t fair.

(Verse 2)
China’s pushin’ back, Europe’s got a plan,
Companies scramblin’, doin’ all they can.
Supply chains broken, prices climbin’ high,
All because the leaders see eye for an eye.

(Bridge)
Maybe one day, we’ll shake hands and see,
That fair trade’s better than a high-duty spree.
But ‘til that day, I’m ridin’ this storm,
Tryna keep my business alive and warm.

(Outro)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re makin’ me sigh,
Money’s flyin’ out, watchin’ profits die.
Someday we’ll fix it, but for now it’s tough,
'Cause tariff blues—man, they’re rough!

(Chorus)
Oh, these tariffs, they’re givin’ me the blues,
Trade war’s burnin’, got too much to lose.
They tax me here, they tax me there,
Tryna make a dime, but it just ain’t fair.