Trump and Putin Meeting in Alaska: 'Chess With the Bear'
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The planned meeting between Donald Trump, United States President, and the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, in Anchorage, Alaska, marks a significant geopolitical development. While the outcome remains unclear, two overarching points define the context of the talks.
First, in light of Trump's remarks on the swapping of territories, the war in Ukraine is not a territorial dispute, as pointed out by Olga Tokariuk, a Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), during a CEPA press briefing.
Russia's objective is not limited to capturing land but to subjugating a sovereign, democratic, pro-Western state. Public statements by Trump suggesting that territorial concessions could end the war are likely to be interpreted in Moscow as impunity, encouraging further aggression.
Second, Russia has a long record of disregarding treaties and commitments. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from the US, UK, France, and Russia, has been rendered meaningless by Russia's actions since 2014.
The metaphor of "playing chess with a bear" captures the dynamic: rules are irrelevant when parties are about to devour the chessboard.
Geopolitical and Diplomatic Implications
From Ukraine's perspective, the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" is non-negotiable, said Tokariuk. Both the government and the public share the position.
The exclusion of Ukraine's president from the talks has drawn historical comparisons to the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, when major powers divided Eastern Europe without the participation of the affected states. In addition, any bilateral agreement between Washington and Moscow that excludes Kyiv would have no validity for Ukraine and is widely viewed as a sign of weakening US support.
The Trump Putin Alaska Summit and Europe's Munich Moment
"The uncomfortable truth is this: if Ukraine falls, Europe won't be debating whether to confront Russia, but when"
Andrew Chakhoyan
For Russia, the summit offers multiple advantages. It grants Putin international visibility, undermines the authority of the International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued against him for the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, and disrupts the diplomatic isolation imposed by Western states since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
On a global level, the summit's optics could reshape alliances, potentially moving the US closer to Russia. The meeting sidelines Europe at a moment when transatlantic unity is critical.
The location carries symbolic weight. Alaska was part of the Russian Empire until its sale to the United States in 1867. Russian media have long framed Alaska as historically theirs, a territory to be returned.
Military Dimensions
Ukraine's military position is clear: it rejects territorial concessions and will not agree to end the war "at any cost", according to Tokariuk. Russia has insisted on full Ukrainian withdrawal from four partially occupied regions. For Kyiv, this is a red line.
While Ukraine supports a ceasefire along the current line of contact, it raises the issue of security guarantees. Any pause in fighting without enforceable mechanisms risks allowing Russia to regroup and launch renewed offensives.
The question of who would act as a guarantor - and how such a guarantee would be implemented - remains unanswered.
Economic Factors
One of Putin's possible motivations for the Anchorage summit is economic. US secondary sanctions, particularly those targeting oil and gas revenues, have increased pressure on Russia's war-driven economy. Avoiding such sanctions is a priority for the Kremlin.
However, Russia's economy is now heavily militarised. Should the war end, it would face structural challenges in converting back to civilian production. This realit...
Packed with exclusive investigations, analysis, and features
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
The planned meeting between Donald Trump, United States President, and the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, in Anchorage, Alaska, marks a significant geopolitical development. While the outcome remains unclear, two overarching points define the context of the talks.
First, in light of Trump's remarks on the swapping of territories, the war in Ukraine is not a territorial dispute, as pointed out by Olga Tokariuk, a Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), during a CEPA press briefing.
Russia's objective is not limited to capturing land but to subjugating a sovereign, democratic, pro-Western state. Public statements by Trump suggesting that territorial concessions could end the war are likely to be interpreted in Moscow as impunity, encouraging further aggression.
Second, Russia has a long record of disregarding treaties and commitments. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from the US, UK, France, and Russia, has been rendered meaningless by Russia's actions since 2014.
The metaphor of "playing chess with a bear" captures the dynamic: rules are irrelevant when parties are about to devour the chessboard.
Geopolitical and Diplomatic Implications
From Ukraine's perspective, the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" is non-negotiable, said Tokariuk. Both the government and the public share the position.
The exclusion of Ukraine's president from the talks has drawn historical comparisons to the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, when major powers divided Eastern Europe without the participation of the affected states. In addition, any bilateral agreement between Washington and Moscow that excludes Kyiv would have no validity for Ukraine and is widely viewed as a sign of weakening US support.
The Trump Putin Alaska Summit and Europe's Munich Moment
"The uncomfortable truth is this: if Ukraine falls, Europe won't be debating whether to confront Russia, but when"
Andrew Chakhoyan
For Russia, the summit offers multiple advantages. It grants Putin international visibility, undermines the authority of the International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued against him for the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, and disrupts the diplomatic isolation imposed by Western states since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
On a global level, the summit's optics could reshape alliances, potentially moving the US closer to Russia. The meeting sidelines Europe at a moment when transatlantic unity is critical.
The location carries symbolic weight. Alaska was part of the Russian Empire until its sale to the United States in 1867. Russian media have long framed Alaska as historically theirs, a territory to be returned.
Military Dimensions
Ukraine's military position is clear: it rejects territorial concessions and will not agree to end the war "at any cost", according to Tokariuk. Russia has insisted on full Ukrainian withdrawal from four partially occupied regions. For Kyiv, this is a red line.
While Ukraine supports a ceasefire along the current line of contact, it raises the issue of security guarantees. Any pause in fighting without enforceable mechanisms risks allowing Russia to regroup and launch renewed offensives.
The question of who would act as a guarantor - and how such a guarantee would be implemented - remains unanswered.
Economic Factors
One of Putin's possible motivations for the Anchorage summit is economic. US secondary sanctions, particularly those targeting oil and gas revenues, have increased pressure on Russia's war-driven economy. Avoiding such sanctions is a priority for the Kremlin.
However, Russia's economy is now heavily militarised. Should the war end, it would face structural challenges in converting back to civilian production. This realit...
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