Make up your mind - China unhappy about everything.
Yellen says inflation to cool. CPI comes in a bit better than feared.
What is in store for the end of 2022 and into 2023?
Announcing the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- Announcing Winner of latest CTP AND Entries for the CTP Cup 2022
- China lockdowns - scaring citizens
- End of the year - Goodbye 2022 - People still concerned about 2023
- Musk boo'd ay Dave Chapelle stand-up
- China - from zero-Covid to 100% Covid
- Markets convulsing....
- Sam Bankman Fried Jailed - or just Sam Bankman NotFree or Sam Bankman Jailed
Market Update
-The S&P 500 index fell 3.4% last week as investors worried that a recent round of better-than-expected economic data might prompt the Federal Reserve to keep its key rate higher for longer.
- All of the S&P 500's sectors fell last week.
-- Energy had the largest percentage drop, down 8.4%, followed by communication services, which slid 5.4%, and consumer discretionary, which fell 4.5%. Other decliners included financials, down 3.9%; and technology and materials, which slipped 3.3% each. The smallest decline came from utilities, which edged down 0.3%.
- All eyes are the Fed meeting this week - FOMC rate decision on Thursday (75% prob of a 50 basis point hike)
- CPI Report released today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing turn of events...
2022 Exit Plan
- Investors have good deal of capital losses
- End of year could see some selling to book those deductions
- - If that happens, look for a big January Effect mid January 2023
- Investors seem mentally exhausted from 2022 - get biz done now until end of year and "hope" for a more pleasant 2023
- 2023 may be just as volatile as Fed not done
CPI Report
- Lighter than feared - markets go bananas on the print (November Core CPI 0.2% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3%)
- Total CPI was up "only" 7.1%, versus 7.7% in October, and core-CPI was up "only" 6.0%, versus 6.3% in October.
- 10 year moves to 3.44%, USD drops hard, Stock futures soar
- CME Fed Funds Futures at 79% for a 50 bps hike; One month ago it was at 80.6% (Meeting on Dec 14)
CPI REPORT REACTION
CPI Report Reaction
One Musk
- Got on stage at Dave Chapelle stand up concert -
- Introduced as the world's richest person (which he no longer is - Bernie Arnault took over - LVMH)
- Supposedly significant # of people booing - (San Francisco venue)
- Video of event ripped down off of Twitter (This is the problem - what happened to free speech?)
CTP for 2022 - Past Winners Only for the CUP
Marcus Galliford
David Norman
Paul Retzlaff
Simon Lutzenberger
Michael Devietro
Matheau Phillips
Rusty Shacklefordd
DJIA is the index you will be guessing - you have until 12/21/2022 to enter.
- Emails went out to all of you
- NO ONE ELSE ENTER - Your price guess will be deleted if you are not the someone mentioned above.
Not Pretty
Fixed (Broken) Income Returns
$600 = 1099K
- Venmo, Paypal over $600 will be reported to IRS
- Supposed to be for business transactions
--- IRS admits, some personal transactions may be coded incorrectly
- - BUT, all income is required to be reported, so this impacts you if you have not been compliant
- - - ODD - Zelle is not reporting any transactions to the IRS....
-- - - - Zelle itself said it does not have to declare transactions made through the payment service because it is a network that does not hold the funds
2023 - Collection Social Security?
- "Your Social Security benefits will increase by 8.7% in 2023 because of a rise in cost of living," the Social Security Administration states in the annual statem...
Yellen says inflation to cool. CPI comes in a bit better than feared.
What is in store for the end of 2022 and into 2023?
Announcing the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm Up
- Announcing Winner of latest CTP AND Entries for the CTP Cup 2022
- China lockdowns - scaring citizens
- End of the year - Goodbye 2022 - People still concerned about 2023
- Musk boo'd ay Dave Chapelle stand-up
- China - from zero-Covid to 100% Covid
- Markets convulsing....
- Sam Bankman Fried Jailed - or just Sam Bankman NotFree or Sam Bankman Jailed
Market Update
-The S&P 500 index fell 3.4% last week as investors worried that a recent round of better-than-expected economic data might prompt the Federal Reserve to keep its key rate higher for longer.
- All of the S&P 500's sectors fell last week.
-- Energy had the largest percentage drop, down 8.4%, followed by communication services, which slid 5.4%, and consumer discretionary, which fell 4.5%. Other decliners included financials, down 3.9%; and technology and materials, which slipped 3.3% each. The smallest decline came from utilities, which edged down 0.3%.
- All eyes are the Fed meeting this week - FOMC rate decision on Thursday (75% prob of a 50 basis point hike)
- CPI Report released today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing turn of events...
2022 Exit Plan
- Investors have good deal of capital losses
- End of year could see some selling to book those deductions
- - If that happens, look for a big January Effect mid January 2023
- Investors seem mentally exhausted from 2022 - get biz done now until end of year and "hope" for a more pleasant 2023
- 2023 may be just as volatile as Fed not done
CPI Report
- Lighter than feared - markets go bananas on the print (November Core CPI 0.2% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3%)
- Total CPI was up "only" 7.1%, versus 7.7% in October, and core-CPI was up "only" 6.0%, versus 6.3% in October.
- 10 year moves to 3.44%, USD drops hard, Stock futures soar
- CME Fed Funds Futures at 79% for a 50 bps hike; One month ago it was at 80.6% (Meeting on Dec 14)
CPI REPORT REACTION
CPI Report Reaction
One Musk
- Got on stage at Dave Chapelle stand up concert -
- Introduced as the world's richest person (which he no longer is - Bernie Arnault took over - LVMH)
- Supposedly significant # of people booing - (San Francisco venue)
- Video of event ripped down off of Twitter (This is the problem - what happened to free speech?)
CTP for 2022 - Past Winners Only for the CUP
Marcus Galliford
David Norman
Paul Retzlaff
Simon Lutzenberger
Michael Devietro
Matheau Phillips
Rusty Shacklefordd
DJIA is the index you will be guessing - you have until 12/21/2022 to enter.
- Emails went out to all of you
- NO ONE ELSE ENTER - Your price guess will be deleted if you are not the someone mentioned above.
Not Pretty
Fixed (Broken) Income Returns
$600 = 1099K
- Venmo, Paypal over $600 will be reported to IRS
- Supposed to be for business transactions
--- IRS admits, some personal transactions may be coded incorrectly
- - BUT, all income is required to be reported, so this impacts you if you have not been compliant
- - - ODD - Zelle is not reporting any transactions to the IRS....
-- - - - Zelle itself said it does not have to declare transactions made through the payment service because it is a network that does not hold the funds
2023 - Collection Social Security?
- "Your Social Security benefits will increase by 8.7% in 2023 because of a rise in cost of living," the Social Security Administration states in the annual statem...
Activity