Big changes - lots of year-end market S&P 500 downgrades.
Recession and stagflation
April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically)
Bill Gates out with a big prediction
The Best Deal Ever! (ELON)
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Big changes - lots of year end market S&P 500 downgrades
- Recession and stagflation
- April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically)
- Bill Gates out with a big prediction
- The Best Deal Ever! (ELON)
Markets
- Corrections happen
- Market jumped off the down worst levels on Monday - is worst priced in?
- Earnings season starts 4/11 - JPM to report
- Year end price targets - lowering
- Yields DOWN - Was that the plan all along?
OpenAi
- OpenAI on Monday announced it had closed its $40 billion funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company.
- The deal values OpenAI at $300 billion, including the new capital.
- The round comes to $30 billion from SoftBank and $10 billion from a syndicate of investors.
Google Trends
- Stagflation - Keyword Search hit highest point in a long time.
- Lots of talk about the potential for higher inflation and softer jobs
Friday is the UnEmp Report
- Expectations are that the rate will tick up from 4.1% to 4.2%
- 145-150k people added to the jobs rolls
---- That would till be good numbers.
Tariff Day - AKA Liberation Day
- April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on-
- Facts say you? (I am not a smart man....)
--- Between China and Canada, Mexico, estimates that the tariffs would bring in $150 Billion in 2025.
- The US Stock market has lost $5.25 TRILLION during the same time
- US GDP is $29 trillion annually - what is $150 BILLION going to do?
- The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion.
Reagan - He is revered...ReaganOmics......
- April 25, 1987 - Radio Address..
- " And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see, at first, when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.
- https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4
Something to Consider...
- Talk on the street: " Tariffs are a negotiation tactic" (What does that mean anyway)
-- Assumption: "US will win the negotiation"
- - Has anyone considered: What if it does not?
- The thought is that it needs to be "fair"
Atlanta GDPNOW
- Liked when it looks good - disregarded when looks bad
- January 31 initial GDP Forecast for Q was +2.9%
- Latest April 1 -3.7%
Recession and stagflation
April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically)
Bill Gates out with a big prediction
The Best Deal Ever! (ELON)
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- Big changes - lots of year end market S&P 500 downgrades
- Recession and stagflation
- April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically)
- Bill Gates out with a big prediction
- The Best Deal Ever! (ELON)
Markets
- Corrections happen
- Market jumped off the down worst levels on Monday - is worst priced in?
- Earnings season starts 4/11 - JPM to report
- Year end price targets - lowering
- Yields DOWN - Was that the plan all along?
OpenAi
- OpenAI on Monday announced it had closed its $40 billion funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company.
- The deal values OpenAI at $300 billion, including the new capital.
- The round comes to $30 billion from SoftBank and $10 billion from a syndicate of investors.
Google Trends
- Stagflation - Keyword Search hit highest point in a long time.
- Lots of talk about the potential for higher inflation and softer jobs
Friday is the UnEmp Report
- Expectations are that the rate will tick up from 4.1% to 4.2%
- 145-150k people added to the jobs rolls
---- That would till be good numbers.
Tariff Day - AKA Liberation Day
- April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on-
- Facts say you? (I am not a smart man....)
--- Between China and Canada, Mexico, estimates that the tariffs would bring in $150 Billion in 2025.
- The US Stock market has lost $5.25 TRILLION during the same time
- US GDP is $29 trillion annually - what is $150 BILLION going to do?
- The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion.
Reagan - He is revered...ReaganOmics......
- April 25, 1987 - Radio Address..
- " And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see, at first, when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.
- https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4
Something to Consider...
- Talk on the street: " Tariffs are a negotiation tactic" (What does that mean anyway)
-- Assumption: "US will win the negotiation"
- - Has anyone considered: What if it does not?
- The thought is that it needs to be "fair"
Atlanta GDPNOW
- Liked when it looks good - disregarded when looks bad
- January 31 initial GDP Forecast for Q was +2.9%
- Latest April 1 -3.7%
Activity