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According to CNN exit polling, in 2024, US President Donald Trump lost Independent voters to Vice President Kamala Harris by a slim three percentage points (49%) Harris, 46% Trump).
One hundred days into Trump 2.0, numerous polls demonstrate that Independents disapprove of the president's job performance. With American politics extremely polarized between Democrats and Republicans, Independents are the critical battleground.
In polling for Washington Post/ ABC News, 58% of Independent voters disapprove of Trump's job performance. Polling by the New York Times/Siena College paints an even grimmer picture as two out of three (66%) Independent voters disapprove of his job performance.
Trump's stars don't get any better the closer you look.
Tariffs Hurt Trump
In Washington Post/ABC News polling, 66% of Independent voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy. In the New York Times/Siena polling, a 54% majority of Independents feel that Trump has made the economy worse since taking office.
Even more significantly, 67% of Independent voters think that Trump does not understand the problems facing them; 60% of the Independents in the Washington Post/ABC News poll say that Trump is out of touch with the "concerns of most people in the United States today".
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Are Trump's tariff policies driving the shift among Independents? The Washington Post/ABC News polling finds that 70% disapprove of Trump's tariffs (6% higher than among all respondents) and the New York Times/Siena polling finds that 63% of Independents disapprove of Trump's tariffs (8 points higher than among all respondents).
Furthermore, 68% of Independents see the US as benefiting from trade with other countries. The data in both polls strongly suggests that Trump's tarries are hurting him with Independent voters.
Trump's Anti-immigration Push
No issue had been more central to Trump's political identity than immigration. The New York Times/Siena polling shows that 54% approve of Trump's policy of "deporting immigrants living in the United States illegally back to their home countries". Independents are slightly less likely to approve of this policy (52%).
In the Washington Post/ABC News polling, 48% feel that Trump is "going too far in deporting undocumented immigrants," while jus